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Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts

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  • Kong, Dongmin
  • Liu, Lihua
  • Liu, Shasha

Abstract

This study examines the causal effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on the forecast accuracy of sell-side analysts. Although transportation infrastructure may reshape business activities, comparatively little attention has been paid to the impact of traveling cost on the information acquisition of analysts. In this study, we exploit a quasi-experiment of variation in China's HSR and use difference-in-differences estimation to show the following. (1) HSR substantially increase forecast accuracy for firms located in the cities connected to HSR. (2) To address endogeneity, we introduce a placebo test and instrumental variable based on the hypothetical least-cost HSR networks, and the results are highly consistent. (3) A plausible mechanism is that HSR increase the probability of analysts' visit of listed firms rather than via increased analyst coverage and an improved firm information environment. (4) Our findings are more pronounced for firms with high accrual quality, firms audited by a Big 4 auditor, and firms located nearer information centers. Overall, we provide the first empirical evaluation of the economic consequences of HSR in terms of analyst forecast and market information transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua & Liu, Shasha, 2020. "Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x19307401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101320
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    7. Dongshan Ma & Shengqiang Zhang & Jiayu Zhao, 2022. "The High-Speed Railway Opening and Audit Fees: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Li, Wenfei & Li, Donghui & Yang, Shijie, 2022. "The impact of internet penetration on venture capital investments: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Wang, Zhibin & Li, Zelei, 2023. "Does minority shareholder activism enhance corporate innovation? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Li, Bin & Zhao, Qizi & Shahab, Yasir & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "High-speed rail construction and labor investment efficiency: Evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Liu, Mengsha & Jiang, Yan & Wei, Xiaokun & Ruan, Qingsong & Lv, Dayong, 2023. "Effect of high-speed rail on entrepreneurial activities: Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    12. Zhang, Weike & Tian, Xiaoli & Yu, Ao, 2020. "Is high-speed rail a catalyst for the fourth industrial revolution in China? Story of enhanced technology spillovers from venture capital," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Chen, Kejing & Guo, Wenqi & Jiang, Lin & Xiong, Xiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Does time-space compression affect analyst forecast performance?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Hou, Qingsong & Li, Weifang & Teng, Min & Hu, May, 2022. "Just a short-lived glory?The effect of China's anti-corruption on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Shang, Duo & Yuan, Dongliang & Li, Dehui & Lin, Qi, 2023. "Independent directors’ geographic distance, high-speed railway, and corporate cash holdings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Tam, Lewis H.K. & Tian, Shaohua, 2023. "Language barriers, corporate site visit, and analyst forecast accuracy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 68-83.
    17. Dai, Yunhao & Chao, Yang & Wang, Li, 2021. "The brain gain of CFOs in China: The case of analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-speed rail; Sell-side analyst; Information dissemination; Forecast accuracy; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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