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Robust temporal optimisation for a crop planning problem under climate change uncertainty

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  • Randall, M.
  • Montgomery, J.
  • Lewis, A.

Abstract

Considering a temporal dimension allows for the delivery of rolling solutions to complex real-world problems. Moving forward in time brings uncertainty, and large margins for potential error in solutions. For the multi-year crop planning problem, the largest uncertainty is how the climate will change over coming decades. The innovation this paper presents are novel methods that allow the solver to produce feasible solutions under all climate models tested, simultaneously. Three new measures of robustness are introduced and evaluated. The highly robust solutions are shown to vary little across different climate change projections, maintaining consistent net revenue and environmental flow deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall, M. & Montgomery, J. & Lewis, A., 2022. "Robust temporal optimisation for a crop planning problem under climate change uncertainty," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:oprepe:v:9:y:2022:i:c:s2214716021000312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.orp.2021.100219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramos, Francisco López & Batres, Rafael & De-la-Cruz-Márquez, Cynthia Griselle & Anzures, Melina López, 2023. "Optimization models for nopal crop planning with land usage expansion and government subsidy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Sebatjane, Makoena, 2022. "The impact of preservation technology investments on lot-sizing and shipment strategies in a three-echelon food supply chain involving growing and deteriorating items," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    3. Andrew Lewis & James Montgomery & Max Lewis & Marcus Randall & Karin Schiller, 2023. "Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2721-2735, May.

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