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Spatial interaction of crime incidents in Japan

  • Kakamu, Kazuhiko
  • Polasek, Wolfgang
  • Wago, Hajime

We analyze the development of 18 types of criminal records in Japan for the period 1991–2001 across 47 prefectures with spatial lag and spatio-temporal heteroscedasticity. We explore the hypothesis that crime data are related to socio-economic variables in Japan. We extend the Bayesian approach of LeSage [J.P. LeSage, Bayesian estimation of spatial autoregressive models, Int. Regional Sci. Rev. 20 (1997) 113–129] for spatio-temporal Bayesian models. Additionally we analyze unobserved heteroscedasticity in the panel model by variance inflation factors as in Geweke [J. Geweke, Bayesian treatment of the independent Student-t linear model, J. Appl. Econ. 8 (1993) 19–40]. Positive and significant spatial dependencies can be found for 12 types of crimes and the influence of the socio-economic variables varies over the type of crimes.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM).

Volume (Year): 78 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 276-282

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Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:276-282
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/

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  1. Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S19-40, Suppl. De.
  2. Holloway, Garth & Shankar, Bhavani & Rahman, Sanzidur, 2002. "Bayesian spatial probit estimation: a primer and an application to HYV rice adoption," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 383-402, November.
  3. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cornwell, Christopher & Trumbull, William N, 1994. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 360-66, May.
  5. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
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