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A simulation-based hyperparameter selection for quantile estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution

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  • Park, Jeong-Soo

Abstract

A systematic way of selecting hyperparameters of the prior on the shape parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is presented. The optimal selection is based on a Monte Carlo simulation in the generalized maximum likelihood estimation (GMLE) framework. A scaled total misfit measure for the accurate estimation of upper quantiles is used for the selection criterion. The performance evaluations for GEVD and non-GEVD show that the GMLE with selected hyperparameters produces more accurate quantile estimates than the MLE, the L-moments estimator, and Martins–Stedinger’s GMLE.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Jeong-Soo, 2005. "A simulation-based hyperparameter selection for quantile estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 227-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:70:y:2005:i:4:p:227-234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2005.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Verhoeven, Peter & McAleer, Michael, 2004. "Fat tails and asymmetry in financial volatility models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 351-361.
    2. Hirose, Hideo, 2000. "Maximum likelihood parameter estimation by model augmentation with applications to the extended four-parameter generalized gamma distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 81-97.
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