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Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran

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  • Shirmohammadi, Bagher
  • Malekian, Arash
  • Salajegheh, Ali
  • Taheri, Bahram
  • Azarnivand, Hossein
  • Malek, Ziga
  • Verburg, Peter H.

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly vulnerable to global environmental change because of their fragile climatic conditions. The rapid development of land use is expected to affect aquatic ecosystems in these regions. In this study, we focused on how land use change affects the stream flow and inflow to Urmia Lake in the Mordagh Chay basin, Iran. This case-study exemplifies dynamics found across a much larger region. We mapped changes in land use between 1993–2015 using satellite imagery and modeled future changes using the Dyna-CLUE model. We projected future land use change until 2030 under four scenarios: continuing of the current trend of water use, 40% water withdrawal reduction, and two other scenarios with 40% water withdrawal reduction and improvements of irrigation efficiency up to 50% and 85%. Between 1993–2015, 21% of the study area changed to orchard and arable land mostly at the cost of rangeland. However, upon reduction of water withdrawal our analyses showed that garden must decrease between 27% and 40%. Rainfed cropland is projected to experience a major increase in all scenarios, especially in the case of reduced water withdrawal, where it will increase by 217%. In order to achieve sustainable water resources management land use plays a major role and leads to different land use futures in this type of semi-arid regions.

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  • Shirmohammadi, Bagher & Malekian, Arash & Salajegheh, Ali & Taheri, Bahram & Azarnivand, Hossein & Malek, Ziga & Verburg, Peter H., 2020. "Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:90:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719307525
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Abdurrahim Aydın & Remzi Eker, 2022. "Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2683-2707, December.
    3. Seyed Reza Es’haghi & Hamid Karimi & Amirreza Rezaei & Pouria Ataei, 2022. "Content Analysis of the Problems and Challenges of Agricultural Water Use: A Case Study of Lake Urmia Basin at Miandoab, Iran," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    4. Fernandes, Milton Marques & Fernandes, Márcia Rodrigues de Moura & Garcia, Junior Ruiz & Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli & de Almeida, André Quintão & Pinto, Alexandre Siqueira & Menezes, Rômulo, 2020. "Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Yao Lu & Min Zhou & Guoliang Ou & Zuo Zhang & Li He & Yuxiang Ma & Chaonan Ma & Jiating Tu & Siqi Li, 2021. "Sustainable Land-Use Allocation Model at a Watershed Level under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Wesley Douglas Oliveira Silva & Danielle Costa Morais & Marcella Maia Urtiga, 2022. "An integrative negotiation model to deal with conflicts toward water resources management: a case study in Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 10443-10469, August.
    7. Shengtang Wang & Yingchun Ge, 2022. "Ecological Quality Response to Multi-Scenario Land-Use Changes in the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Ma, Shuai & Wang, Liang-Jie & Chu, Lei & Jiang, Jiang, 2023. "Determination of ecological restoration patterns based on water security and food security in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    9. Moraes-Santos, Eliana Cristina & Dias, Rubens Alves & Balestieri, Jose Antonio Perrella, 2021. "Groundwater and the water-food-energy nexus: The grants for water resources use and its importance and necessity of integrated management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
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    11. Ming Kong & Jieni Zhao & Chuanfu Zang & Yiting Li & Jinglin Deng, 2023. "Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Water Resources Trend Change in Hanjiang River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, February.

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