IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i7p3202-d1627828.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on SD-PLUS-VORS Coupled Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Jiancheng Yu

    (School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Shuting Guo

    (Zhengzhou Tourism Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450000, China)

  • Shiyuan Wang

    (Guangdong Urban and Rural Planning and Design Institute Technology Group Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510290, China)

  • Yanyun Luo

    (School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

Human activities exert considerable influence on ecosystem health, a cornerstone for fostering sustainable regional growth, largely through their effects on land use transformations. This study integrates a system dynamics (SD) model with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the VORS (vigor–organization–resilience–ecosystem services) model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and assess ecosystem health in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area (CMA) from 2020 to 2035. These projections were conducted under three distinct scenarios: the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the natural development scenario (NDS), and the economic development scenario (EDS). The findings indicate the following: (1) Under EPS, NDS, and EDS, both cultivated land and grassland areas decline, and construction land expands by 40.68%, 54.76%, and 75.01%, respectively. (2) Across all three scenarios, ecosystem health demonstrates improvement, and it shifts from “poor” to “moderate.” (3) Ecosystem health levels in the CMA demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity; they exhibit “low” levels in the central city, while generally stable levels are observed throughout the surrounding region. These results offer a strong scientific foundation for cultivating sustainable land management strategies and protecting ecosystem health in the CMA.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiancheng Yu & Shuting Guo & Shiyuan Wang & Yanyun Luo, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on SD-PLUS-VORS Coupled Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:7:p:3202-:d:1627828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/7/3202/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/7/3202/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costanza, Robert & de Groot, Rudolf & Braat, Leon & Kubiszewski, Ida & Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Sutton, Paul & Farber, Steve & Grasso, Monica, 2017. "Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 1-16.
    2. Zhi Wang & Zhaoping Yang & Hui Shi & Fang Han & Qin Liu & Jianwei Qi & Yayan Lu, 2020. "Ecosystem Health Assessment of World Natural Heritage Sites Based on Remote Sensing and Field Sampling Verification: Bayanbulak as Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Qun Zhang & Cifang Wu, 2022. "Optimization Model of Permanent Basic Farmland Indicators Distribution from the Perspective of Equity: A Case from W County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Xie, Xue & Fang, Bin & Xu, Hanzeyu & He, Shasha & Li, Xin, 2021. "Study on the coordinated relationship between Urban Land use efficiency and ecosystem health in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Shirmohammadi, Bagher & Malekian, Arash & Salajegheh, Ali & Taheri, Bahram & Azarnivand, Hossein & Malek, Ziga & Verburg, Peter H., 2020. "Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei Shen & Yang Li, 2022. "Multi-Scale Assessment and Spatio-Temporal Interaction Characteristics of Ecosystem Health in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Aryal, Kishor & Maraseni, Tek & Apan, Armando, 2023. "Examining policy−institution−program (PIP) responses against the drivers of ecosystem dynamics. A chronological review (1960–2020) from Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Liu, Duan & Tang, Runcheng & Xie, Jun & Tian, Jingjing & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Kai, 2020. "Valuation of ecosystem services of rice–fish coculture systems in Ruyuan County, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Simin He & Yusong Xie & Jing Zhang & Yanyun Luo & Qianna Wang, 2025. "Heterogeneity of Ecosystem Service Interactions Through Scale Effects and Time Effects and Their Social-Ecological Determinants in the Tuo River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Yajing Shao & Xuefeng Yuan & Chaoqun Ma & Ruifang Ma & Zhaoxia Ren, 2020. "Quantifying the Spatial Association between Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study in Xi’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Pietrzyk-Kaszyńska, Agata & Olszańska, Agnieszka & Rechciński, Marcin & Tusznio, Joanna & Grodzińska-Jurczak, Małgorzata, 2022. "Divergent or convergent? Prioritization and spatial representation of ecosystem services as perceived by conservation professionals and local leaders," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Wenjie Zhu & Xiaobin Jin & Xiaolin Zhang & Jingping Liu & Yinkang Zhou, 2024. "Ecosystem services to support sustainable development: The modifiable areal unit problem in the transition between evaluation and management units," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 6253-6273, December.
    8. Robbie Maris & Mark Holmes, 2023. "Economic Growth Theory and Natural Resource Constraints: A Stocktake and Critical Assessment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(2), pages 255-268, June.
    9. Shuzhen Song & Xingyan Chen & Yuehua Song & Yongkuan Chi, 2024. "Vegetation Restoration Patterns Influence the Supply and Interrelations of Grassland Ecosystem Services in Karst Desertification Control," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Jiayu Xia & Duyuzheng Ren & Xuhui Wang & Bo Xu & Xingyao Zhong & Yajiang Fan, 2023. "Ecosystem Quality Assessment and Ecological Restoration in Fragile Zone of Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Suide County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-32, May.
    11. van der Hoff, Richard & Nascimento, Nathália & Fabrício-Neto, Ailton & Jaramillo-Giraldo, Carolina & Ambrosio, Geanderson & Arieira, Julia & Afonso Nobre, Carlos & Rajão, Raoni, 2022. "Policy-oriented ecosystem services research on tropical forests in South America: A systematic literature review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Joel C. Creed & Laura Sol Aranda & Júlia Gomes de Sousa & Caio Barros Brito do Bem & Beatriz Sant’Anna Vasconcelos Marafiga Dutra & Marianna Lanari & Virgínia Eduarda de Sousa & Karine M. Magalhães & , 2023. "A Synthesis of Provision and Impact in Seagrass Ecosystem Services in the Brazilian Southwest Atlantic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Wanxu Chen & Guangqing Chi & Jiangfeng Li, 2020. "Ecosystem Services and Their Driving Forces in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
    14. O'Sullivan, Jane N., 2020. "The social and environmental influences of population growth rate and demographic pressure deserve greater attention in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Nicolás Ruiz, Néstor & Suárez Alonso, María Luisa & Vidal-Abarca, María Rosario, 2021. "Contributions of dry rivers to human well-being: A global review for future research," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Silva, Daiane Vitória da & Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo & Faria, Luiz Carlos de & Piekarski, Cassiano Moro & Saavedra, Yovana María Barrera & Lopes Silva, Diogo A., 2024. "Opportunities to integrate Ecosystem Services into Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): a case study of milk production in Brazil," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Moreno-Llorca, R. & Vaz, A.S. & Herrero, J. & Millares, A. & Bonet-García, F.J. & Alcaraz-Segura, D., 2020. "Multi-scale evolution of ecosystem services’ supply in Sierra Nevada (Spain): An assessment over the last half-century," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    18. Xiaoyu Li & Shudan Gong & Qingdong Shi & Yuan Fang, 2023. "A Review of Ecosystem Services Based on Bibliometric Analysis: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Daniels, Silvie & Bellmore, J. Ryan & Benjamin, Joseph R. & Witters, Nele & Vangronsveld, Jaco & Van Passel, Steven, 2018. "Quantification of the Indirect Use Value of Functional Group Diversity Based on the Ecological Role of Species in the Ecosystem," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 181-194.
    20. Lau, Jacqueline D. & Hicks, Christina C. & Gurney, Georgina G. & Cinner, Joshua E., 2018. "Disaggregating ecosystem service values and priorities by wealth, age, and education," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PA), pages 91-98.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:7:p:3202-:d:1627828. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.