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Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone

Author

Listed:
  • Yuke Song

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Mangen Li

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Linghua Duo

    (School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Niannan Chen

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Jinping Lu

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Wanzhen Yang

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

Abstract

Ecological security is integral to national security strategies, making the construction of ecological security patterns essential for mitigating ecological risks. However, predictive research on ecological security patterns (ESPs) remains limited. This study integrates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with ecological security pattern analysis to provide scientific insights into spatial governance and optimization in the Poyang Lake Ecological and Economic Zone (PLEEZ). First, the PLUS model simulated land use changes in 2030 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), and ecological protection (EP). Based on these projections, ecological security patterns were constructed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) method, Conefor 2.6, the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, and resistance theory. The results indicate: (1) 19, 18, and 21 ecological source areas were identified under different scenarios, covering 6093.16 km 2 , 5973.21 km 2 , and 6702.56 km 2 , respectively, with 9, 8, and 10 important source sites, primarily in the north. (2) 37, 35, and 43 ecological corridors were delineated, exhibiting a spiderweb-like distribution. (3) 94, 62, and 107 ecological pinch points and 116, 121, and 104 ecological barrier points were detected. The Ecological Node Aggregation Area was identified as a critical zone for targeted ecological protection and restoration. Finally, the ecological zoning management strategy of “Four Cores, Two Zones, and One Belt” was proposed. This study offers valuable insights for sustainable land use planning and ecological risk mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuke Song & Mangen Li & Linghua Duo & Niannan Chen & Jinping Lu & Wanzhen Yang, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4017-:d:1645967
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