IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i9p4017-d1645967.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone

Author

Listed:
  • Yuke Song

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Mangen Li

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Linghua Duo

    (School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Niannan Chen

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Jinping Lu

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

  • Wanzhen Yang

    (School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China)

Abstract

Ecological security is integral to national security strategies, making the construction of ecological security patterns essential for mitigating ecological risks. However, predictive research on ecological security patterns (ESPs) remains limited. This study integrates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with ecological security pattern analysis to provide scientific insights into spatial governance and optimization in the Poyang Lake Ecological and Economic Zone (PLEEZ). First, the PLUS model simulated land use changes in 2030 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), and ecological protection (EP). Based on these projections, ecological security patterns were constructed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) method, Conefor 2.6, the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, and resistance theory. The results indicate: (1) 19, 18, and 21 ecological source areas were identified under different scenarios, covering 6093.16 km 2 , 5973.21 km 2 , and 6702.56 km 2 , respectively, with 9, 8, and 10 important source sites, primarily in the north. (2) 37, 35, and 43 ecological corridors were delineated, exhibiting a spiderweb-like distribution. (3) 94, 62, and 107 ecological pinch points and 116, 121, and 104 ecological barrier points were detected. The Ecological Node Aggregation Area was identified as a critical zone for targeted ecological protection and restoration. Finally, the ecological zoning management strategy of “Four Cores, Two Zones, and One Belt” was proposed. This study offers valuable insights for sustainable land use planning and ecological risk mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuke Song & Mangen Li & Linghua Duo & Niannan Chen & Jinping Lu & Wanzhen Yang, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4017-:d:1645967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4017/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4017/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziyang Wang & Peiji Shi & Xuebin Zhang & Huali Tong & Weiping Zhang & Yue Liu, 2021. "Research on Landscape Pattern Construction and Ecological Restoration of Jiuquan City Based on Ecological Security Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Xiaodan Li & Haoyu Tao & Jing Wang & Bo Zhang & Zhen Liu & Zhiping Liu & Jing Li, 2025. "Integrated Evaluation of the Ecological Security Pattern in Central Beijing Using InVEST, MSPA, and Multifactor Indices," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Li, Xuehong & Zhang, Xuebin & Feng, Haoyuan & Li, Yixia & Yu, Jiale & Liu, Yanni & Du, Hucheng, 2024. "Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    4. Xiufeng Cao & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Zhenjun Gao, 2022. "Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Renhui Zuo & Yan Ma & Ming Tang & Hao Luo & Junqin Li & Tao Liao & Yuanfang Gong & Shunfu Zhang & Jiyi Gong & Yin Yi, 2025. "Regional Carbon Storage Dynamics Driven by Tea Plantation Expansion: Insights from Meitan County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Qian Cheng & Ruixin Chen & Wei Xu & Meiqing Wang, 2025. "Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Coastal Wetland Landscape Patterns and Prediction Analysis—A Case Study of Panjin Wetland, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Bo Mu & Guohang Tian & Gengyu Xin & Miao Hu & Panpan Yang & Yiwen Wang & Hao Xie & Audrey L. Mayer & Yali Zhang, 2021. "Measuring Dynamic Changes in the Spatial Pattern and Connectivity of Surface Waters Based on Landscape and Graph Metrics: A Case Study of Henan Province in Central China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Yimin Li & Juanzhen Zhao & Jing Yuan & Peikun Ji & Xuanlun Deng & Yiming Yang, 2022. "Constructing the Ecological Security Pattern of Nujiang Prefecture Based on the Framework of “Importance–Sensitivity–Connectivity”," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Jiancheng Yu & Shuting Guo & Shiyuan Wang & Yanyun Luo, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on SD-PLUS-VORS Coupled Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Linfeng Xu & Xuan Liu & De Tong & Zhixin Liu & Lirong Yin & Wenfeng Zheng, 2022. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Maomao Zhang & Enqing Chen & Cheng Zhang & Chen Liu & Jianxing Li, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-23, July.
    12. He, Hui & Yu, Xiangke & Yu, Hui & Ma, Zhigang & Luo, Yong & Liu, Tao & Rong, Ziwei & Xu, Jinhong & Chen, Dianpeng & Li, Pengshang & Yuan, Fuxin & Zhao, Yongtao, 2024. "Suitable habitat evaluation and ecological security pattern optimization for the ecological restoration of Giant Panda habitat based on nonstationary factors and MCR model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 494(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tingke Wu & Shiwei Lu & Yichen Ding, 2025. "Ecological Security Evaluation System Integrated with Circuit Theory for Regional Ecological Security Pattern Construction: A Coordinated Study of Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Xinlei Xu & Siyuan Wang & Gege Yan & Xinyi He, 2023. "Ecological Security Assessment Based on the “Importance–Sensitivity–Connectivity” Index and Pattern Construction: A Case Study of Xiliu Ditch in the Yellow River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Zhuo Li & Jiachen Liu & Rongqiang Ma & Wenhui Xie & Xiaoyu Zhao & Zhaohai Wang & Baolei Zhang & Le Yin, 2024. "Construction of Ecological Security Pattern Based on Ecosystem Services, Sensitivity, Connectivity, and Resistance—A Case Study in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Tzu-Cheng Chang & Jia-Hong Tang & Ta-Chien Chan, 2025. "Spatiotemporal impact of urban development on nighttime light intensity and its hotspot distribution," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(6), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Shunqian Gao & Liu Yang & Hongzan Jiao, 2022. "Changes in and Patterns of the Tradeoffs and Synergies of Production-Living-Ecological Space: A Case Study of Longli County, Guizhou Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Qiaoyin Zhang & Yan Wu & Zhiqiang Zhao, 2024. "Identification of Harbin Ecological Function Degradation Areas Based on Ecological Importance Assessment and Ecological Sensitivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Mingming Zhuge & Yuandong Hu, 2024. "Construction and Optimization of Ecological Network in Guanzhong Region of Shaanxi Province Based on PLUS-InVEST-Linkage Mapper," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, November.
    8. Lili Du & Yunbing Hou & Shuheng Zhong & Kai Qu, 2023. "Identification of Priority Areas for Ecological Restoration in Coal Mining Areas with a High Groundwater Table Based on Ecological Security Pattern and Ecological Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. An Nguyen & Vasily Kovyazin & Cong Pham, 2025. "Application of Remote Sensing and GIS in Monitoring Forest Cover Changes in Vietnam Based on Natural Zoning," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Zidao Lu & Maomao Zhang & Chunguang Hu & Lianlong Ma & Enqing Chen & Cheng Zhang & Guozhen Xia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Changes and Influencing Factors of the Coupled Production–Living–Ecological Functions in the Yellow River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Huanhuan Xiong & Xuejing Wang & Xinrui Hu, 2023. "Research on the Duality of China’s Marine Fishery Carbon Emissions and Its Coordination with Economic Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    13. Haiying Huo & Pengfei Liu & Su Li & Wei Hou & Wenjing Xu & Xiayu Wen & Yuhang Bai, 2025. "Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution Relationship Between Ecological Resilience and Land Use Intensity in Hebei Province and Scenario Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Mao Feng & Wanmin Zhao & Tao Zhang, 2023. "Construction and Optimization Strategy of County Ecological Infrastructure Network Based on MCR and Gravity Model—A Case Study of Langzhong County in Sichuan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, May.
    15. Ning He & Wenxian Guo & Hongxiang Wang & Long Yu & Siyuan Cheng & Lintong Huang & Xuyang Jiao & Wenxiong Chen & Haotong Zhou, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Variations in Landscape Habitat Quality under Multiple Land-Use/Land-Cover Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model in the Yangtze River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Yanyan Xu & Hao Wang & Kejia Zhang & Yue Han, 2024. "Ecological security assessment of urban park landscape using the DPSIR model and EW-PCA method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 31301-31321, December.
    17. Wei, Zhongyong & Liu, Tao & Liang, Huaixiang & Zhang, Zhe & Wang, Chunhui & Lv, Yadong & Sun, Jizhe & Wang, Qi, 2024. "Uncovering the impacts of LUCC on ecological connectivity in suburban open-pit mining concentration areas: A pattern collection of changing relationships between ecological resistance and ecological n," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 496(C).
    18. Rao Ma & Wendong Lv & Yao Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of TMT Experience Heterogeneity on Enterprise Innovation Quality: Empirical Analysis on Chinese Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Guang Chen & Jian Gong, 2025. "Pre-Assessment Research of Regional Spatial Planning from the Perspective of Spatial Evolution," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Junhao Zhang & Xinjun Wang & Yujing Xie, 2021. "Implication of Buffer Zones Delineation Considering the Landscape Connectivity and Influencing Patch Structural Factors in Nature Reserves," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4017-:d:1645967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.