IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v84y2019icp31-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating socio-ecological dynamics into land use policy outcomes: A spatial scenario approach for native forest conservation in south-central Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Manuschevich, Daniela
  • Sarricolea, Pablo
  • Galleguillos, Mauricio

Abstract

Chile is one of the first documented nations to undergo a forest transition dominated by tree farm expansion. Scenario modelling can inform the possible outcomes of forest conservation policies, especially when the scenarios are rooted in the political dynamics that shaped the current legislation. In Chile, tree farms of non-native Radiata Pine and Eucalyptus provide a fast return on investment. Today, fast-growing plantations compete for land area with forest conservation, putting the unique bundle of ecosystem services provided by the latter at risk. Based on a previous political analysis, we propose scenarios projected to 2030 to compare a business-as-usual scenario with A) a conservation scenario based on strict land use restrictions B) an optimistic conservation scenario; C) an unrestricted industrial land use scenario; and D) a restricted industrial land use scenario. The scenarios differ in terms of the implemented policy instruments and the land area required for each land use. We compared these scenarios in terms of carbon stock, control of erosion and wood production, all of which are relevant in the current Chilean political debate. A conservation scenario (A), that combines incentives and restrictions, would imply the largest increase in native forest and regulation services, namely carbon stock and erosion control. In contrast, an unrestricted industrial land use scenario (C) leads to the worst outcomes in terms of erosion compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This study seeks to link political and economic processes underpinning land use change to environmental outcomes, while contributing to the larger discussion on forest policy, forest transitions and environmental outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuschevich, Daniela & Sarricolea, Pablo & Galleguillos, Mauricio, 2019. "Integrating socio-ecological dynamics into land use policy outcomes: A spatial scenario approach for native forest conservation in south-central Chile," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 31-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:84:y:2019:i:c:p:31-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.01.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718307518
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.01.042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Vliet, Jasper & Bregt, Arnold K. & Hagen-Zanker, Alex, 2011. "Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1367-1375.
    2. Verboom, Jana & Alkemade, Rob & Klijn, Jan & Metzger, Marc J. & Reijnen, Rien, 2007. "Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 267-276, April.
    3. Griewald, Yuliana & Clemens, Gerhard & Kamp, Johannes & Gladun, Elena & Hölzel, Norbert & von Dressler, Hubertus, 2017. "Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 264-276.
    4. Scheidel, Arnim & Work, Courtney, 2018. "Forest plantations and climate change discourses: New powers of ‘green’ grabbing in Cambodia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 9-18.
    5. van Vliet, Jasper & Hagen-Zanker, Alex & Hurkens, Jelle & van Delden, Hedwig, 2013. "A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 32-42.
    6. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    7. Legrand, Thomas & Froger, Géraldine & Le Coq, Jean-François, 2013. "Institutional performance of Payments for Environmental Services: An analysis of the Costa Rican Program," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 115-123.
    8. Pablo Sarricolea & Mariajosé Herrera-Ossandon & Óliver Meseguer-Ruiz, 2017. "Climatic regionalisation of continental Chile," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 66-73, November.
    9. Tamara S Wilson & Benjamin M Sleeter & D Richard Cameron, 2017. "Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jouf, C. & Lawson, L.A., 2022. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: Cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. César Benavidez-Silva & Magdalena Jensen & Patricio Pliscoff, 2021. "Future Scenarios for Land Use in Chile: Identifying Drivers of Change and Impacts over Protected Area System," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Valencia Torres, Angélica & Tiwari, Chetan & Atkinson, Samuel F., 2021. "Progress in ecosystem services research: A guide for scholars and practitioners," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viviana Tudela & Pablo Sarricolea & Roberto Serrano-Notivoli & Oliver Meseguer-Ruiz, 2023. "A pilot study for climate risk assessment in agriculture: a climate-based index for cherry trees," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 163-185, January.
    2. Ke, Xinli & van Vliet, Jasper & Zhou, Ting & Verburg, Peter H. & Zheng, Weiwei & Liu, Xiaoping, 2018. "Direct and indirect loss of natural habitat due to built-up area expansion: A model-based analysis for the city of Wuhan, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 231-239.
    3. Dingrao Feng & Wenkai Bao & Meichen Fu & Min Zhang & Yiyu Sun, 2021. "Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Rojas, Redlich García & Alvarado, Natalia & Boland, John & Escobar, Rodrigo & Castillejo-Cuberos, Armando, 2019. "Diffuse fraction estimation using the BRL model and relationship of predictors under Chilean, Costa Rican and Australian climatic conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1091-1106.
    5. Wang, Liye & Zhang, Siyu & Tang, Lanping & Lu, Yanchi & Liu, Yanfang & Liu, Yaolin, 2022. "Optimizing distribution of urban land on the basis of urban land use intensity at prefectural city scale in mainland China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Guzman, Luis A. & Escobar, Francisco & Peña, Javier & Cardona, Rafael, 2020. "A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Calvo, Rubén & Álamos, Nicolás & Huneeus, Nicolás & O'Ryan, Raúl, 2022. "Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Roberto Pizarro & Pablo A. Garcia-Chevesich & John E. McCray & Jonathan O. Sharp & Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda & Claudia Sangüesa & Dayana Jaque-Becerra & Pablo Álvarez & Sebastián Norambuena & Alfredo Ibáñ, 2022. "Climate Change and Overuse: Water Resource Challenges during Economic Growth in Coquimbo, Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-10, March.
    9. Omar Hamdy & Hanan Gaber & Mohamed S. Abdalzaher & Mahmoud Elhadidy, 2022. "Identifying Exposure of Urban Area to Certain Seismic Hazard Using Machine Learning and GIS: A Case Study of Greater Cairo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-24, August.
    10. Haifen Lei & Jennifer Koch & Hui Shi & Shelby Snapp, 2022. "How Can Macro-Scale Land-Use Policies Be Integrated with Local-Scale Urban Growth? Exploring Trade-Offs for Sustainable Urbanization in Xi’an, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.
    11. World Bank, 2020. "Chile’s Forests," World Bank Publications - Reports 33894, The World Bank Group.
    12. Wu, Wei & Yeager, Kevin M. & Peterson, Mark S. & Fulford, Richard S., 2015. "Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 303(C), pages 55-69.
    13. Matías Calderón-Seguel & Manuel Prieto & Oliver Meseguer-Ruiz & Freddy Viñales & Paulina Hidalgo & Elías Esper, 2021. "Mining, Urban Growth, and Agrarian Changes in the Atacama Desert: The Case of the Calama Oasis in Northern Chile," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Bin Yang & Jun He, 2021. "Global Land Grabbing: A Critical Review of Case Studies across the World," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
    15. van Vliet, Jasper & Hagen-Zanker, Alex & Hurkens, Jelle & van Delden, Hedwig, 2013. "A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 32-42.
    16. Chun Li & Jianhua He & Xingwu Duan, 2020. "Modeling the Collaborative Evolution of Urban Land Considering Urban Interactions under Intermediate Intervention, in the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Raphael Karutz & Christian J. A. Klassert & Sigrun Kabisch, 2023. "On Farmland and Floodplains—Modeling Urban Growth Impacts Based on Global Population Scenarios in Pune, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    19. İnan, Canan Emek & Albulut, Koray, 2022. "Linking actors and scales by green grabbing in Bozbük and Kazıklı," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Zhou, Bing-Bing & Aggarwal, Rimjhim & Wu, Jianguo & Lv, Ligang, 2021. "Urbanization-associated farmland loss: A macro-micro comparative study in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:84:y:2019:i:c:p:31-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.