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Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension

  • Stewart, Theodor J.
  • French, Simon
  • Rios, Jesus
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    Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 679-688

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:41:y:2013:i:4:p:679-688
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    1. Graves, Samuel B. & Ringuest, Jeffrey L., 2009. "Probabilistic dominance criteria for comparing uncertain alternatives: A tutorial," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 346-357, April.
    2. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2009. "Using expected values to simplify decision making under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 312-330, April.
    3. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 456-464.
    4. Papadopoulos, Agis & Karagiannidis, Avraam, 2008. "Application of the multi-criteria analysis method Electre III for the optimisation of decentralised energy systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 766-776, October.
    5. Gerking, Harald, 1987. "Modeling of multi-stage decision-making processes in multi-period energy-models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 191-204, November.
    6. Jiménez, Antonio & Mateos, Alfonso & Ríos-Insua, Sixto, 2009. "Missing consequences in multiattribute utility theory," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 395-410, April.
    7. Simon French, 2003. "Modelling, making inferences and making decisions: The roles of sensitivity analysis," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 229-251, December.
    8. Mingers, John & Rosenhead, Jonathan, 2004. "Problem structuring methods in action," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 530-554, February.
    9. Robert F. Bordley & Gordon Hazen, 1992. "Nonlinear Utility Models Arising from Unmodelled Small World Intercorrelations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 1010-1017, July.
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