IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v23y1995i1p1-11.html

The sophisticated decision maker: All work and no pay?

Author

Listed:
  • Horowitz, I.
  • Thompson, P.

Abstract

We consider the effect on profitability of using increasingly sophisticated regression-based methods of estimating and interpreting the parameters of the demand curve facing the neoclassical firm that newly enters an existing product market. Through simulation it is shown that in this particular setting the differences in the firm's subsequent profit performance over the range of the different methods are de minimus. The demands these methods make upon the decision maker, however, differ substantially. These results prompt us to question whether comparable results in alternative real-world settings might not be more pervasive than we as theoreticians would like to believe is the case. We speculate that all too often the profit payoff from the use of even-more-sophisticated decision-making techniques will fail to justify the required effort. And, further, that even managers who are well versed in sophisticated decision-making procedures are not unlikely to find their talents stretched to the lmit well before they reach the point of diminishing returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Horowitz, I. & Thompson, P., 1995. "The sophisticated decision maker: All work and no pay?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-11, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:23:y:1995:i:1:p:1-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305-0483(94)00059-J
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Batra, Raveendra N & Ullah, Aman, 1974. "Competitive Firm and the Theory of Input Demand under Price Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 537-548, May/June.
    2. SMITH, Kenneth R., 1969. "The effect of uncertainty on monopoly price, capital stock and utilization of capital," LIDAM Reprints CORE 32, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Richard R. Nelson, 1961. "Uncertainty, Prediction, and Competitive Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(1), pages 41-62.
    4. Smith, Kenneth R., 1969. "The effect of uncertainty on monopoly price, capital stock and utilization of capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 48-59, June.
    5. Leland, Hayne E, 1972. "Theory of the Firm Facing Uncertain Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 278-291, June.
    6. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    7. Paroush, Jacob & Kahana, Nava, 1980. "Price Uncertainty and the Cooperative Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 212-216, March.
    8. A. Aykac & M. Corstjens & D. Gautschi & I. Horowitz, 1989. "Estimation Uncertainty and Optimal Advertising Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 42-50, January.
    9. Choi, E. Kwan & Feinerman, Eli, 1991. "Price Uncertainty and the Labor-Managed Firm," Staff General Research Papers Archive 475, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "The Ignorant Monopolist: Optimal Learning with Endogenous Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 565-581, August.
    11. Robert L. Winkler & Gary M. Roodman & Robert R. Britney, 1972. "The Determination of Partial Moments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 290-296, November.
    12. Ernest H. Weinwurm, 1957. "Limitations of the Scientific Method in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 225-233, April.
    13. Mirman, Leonard J & Samuelson, Larry & Urbano, Amparo, 1993. "Monopoly Experimentation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 549-563, August.
    14. Ormiston, Michael B, 1992. "First and Second Degree Transformations and Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 33-44, February.
    15. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    16. Baron, David P, 1971. "Demand Uncertainty in Imperfect Competition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 196-208, June.
    17. Cheng, Hsueh-Cheng & Magill, Michael J P & Shafer, Wayne J, 1987. "Some Results on Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 493-507, June.
    18. Baron, David P, 1970. "Price Uncertainty, Utility, and Industry Equilibrium in Pure Competition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 463-480, October.
    19. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    20. Muzondo, Timothy R., 1979. "On the theory of the competitive labor-managed firm under price uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 127-144, June.
    21. Edwin S. Mills, 1959. "Uncertainty and Price Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 73(1), pages 116-130.
    22. Roger D. Blair & Richard E. Romano, 1988. "The Influence of Attitudes Toward Risk on the Value of Forecasting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(2), pages 387-396.
    23. Balvers, Ronald J & Miller, Norman C, 1992. "Factor Demand under Conditions of Product Demand and Supply Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(3), pages 544-555, July.
    24. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    25. Patrick Thompson & Ira Horowitz, 1993. "Experimentation and Optimal Output Decisions: The Cooperative Versus the Entrepreneurial Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 46-53, January.
    26. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-154, Summer.
    27. Giora Harpaz & Wayne Y. Lee & Robert L. Winkler, 1982. "Learning, Experimentation, and the Optimal Output Decisions of a Competitive Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 589-603, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Horowitz, Ira, 2000. "Constrained service reliability under stochastic demand," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 361-369, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2006. "Les nouveaux modèles de décision dans le risque et l’incertain : quel apport ? [The new models of decision under risk or uncertainty : What approach?]," MPRA Paper 25442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hurley, Terrance M., 2016. "Slutsky, Let Me Introduce You to Arrow-Pratt: Competitive Price Effects with Uncertain Production," Staff Papers 250204, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    4. Georges Dionne & Marc Pellerin, 1987. "Investissement en incertitude : extension du problème de la taille optimale d’une usine," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 63(2), pages 256-281.
    5. Hurley, Terrance M., "undated". "A review of agricultural production risk in the developing world," Working Papers 188476, HarvestChoice.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1980. "Adjustment cost, demand uncertainty, and the behavior of the firm," Working papers 1112-80A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. Christian Gollier & James Hammitt & Nicolas Treich, 2013. "Risk and choice: A research saga," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 129-145, October.
    8. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2006. "Les Nouveaux Modèles de Décision dans le Risque et l’Incertain : Quel Apport ? [The New Models of Decision Under Risk or Uncertainty : What Approach?]," MPRA Paper 76954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Gollier, Christian & Schlesinger, Harris, 1997. "The no-loss offset provision and the attitude towards risk of a risk-neutral firm," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 207-217, August.
    10. Chiu, W. Henry, 2019. "Comparative statics in an ordinal theory of choice under risk," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 113-123.
    11. Wong, Kit Pong, 2017. "Production and hedging under state-dependent preferences and background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 527-534.
    12. Hermelingmeier, Christian, 2010. "The competitive firm and the role of information about uncertain factor prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 547-552, March.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Perry, Janet E. & Mishra, Ashok K., 1999. "Forward Contracting Of Inputs: A Farm-Level Analysis," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 17(2), pages 1-15.
    15. Georges Dionne & Scott Harrington, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    16. Marco de Pinto & Laszlo Goerke, 2022. "Cost uncertainty in an oligopoly with endogenous entry," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 927-948, October.
    17. Xiangkang Yin, 2013. "Two-part tariffs set by a risk-averse monopolist," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 109(2), pages 175-192, June.
    18. Pedro Rui Mazeda Gil, 2005. "The Firm’s Perception of Demand Shocks and the Expected Profitability of Capital under Uncertainty," FEP Working Papers 195, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Watt, Richard, 2020. "Overlooked results on the competitive firm under output price risk: Alternative sufficient conditions for downward sloping factor demand curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. MacMinn Richard D., 2005. "On Corporate Risk Management and Insurance," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-24, June.
    21. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:23:y:1995:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.