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Uncertainty, Prediction, and Competitive Equilibrium

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  • Richard R. Nelson

Abstract

I. Introduction, 41. — II. The equilibrium of the competitive firm, 42; the cost of uncertainty, 42; the economics of prediction, 46; prediction and profit, 48; prediction and supply, 51. — III. The equilibrium of the competitive industry, 54; prediction and profit in a closed industry, 55; prediction and economic equilibrium in an open industry, 58; prediction and price variation, 58; decentralization of prediction, 60. — IV. Conclusions, 61.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard R. Nelson, 1961. "Uncertainty, Prediction, and Competitive Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(1), pages 41-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:75:y:1961:i:1:p:41-62.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1883203
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Artificial intelligence adoption in a competitive market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 690-705, April.
    2. Horowitz, I. & Thompson, P., 1995. "The sophisticated decision maker: All work and no pay?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Jacek Cukrowski, 1998. "Information-processing, technological progress and regional retail networks dynamics," ERSA conference papers ersa98p71, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Vermeulen, Ben & Pyka, Andreas, 2016. "Agent-based modeling for decision making in economics under uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-33.
    5. Tisdell, Clement A., 1973. "Certainty Equivalence and Bias in the Management of Production," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(04), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Jacek Cukrowski & Manfred M. Fischer, 2003. "Strategic market research and industry structure in integrated economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 317-329.
    7. Merv Daub, 1971. "Preliminary Results from a Study to Estimate the Cost of Errors in a Firm's Aggregate Predictions," Working Paper 40, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    8. Jacek Cukrowski & Manfred M. Fischer, 2000. "European Integration: Strategic Market Research and Industry Structures," CASE-CEU Working Papers 0036, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    9. N. F. Laing, 1970. "Price Uncertainty, Production, and Profit," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 46(3), pages 411-418, September.
    10. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    11. Álvarez López, Juan & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2010. "Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 840-849, February.
    12. Cukrowski, Jacek & Fischer, Manfred M., 2002. "Information-processing, technological progress, and retail markets dynamics," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, March.

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