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The cost of technical trading rules in the Forex market: A utility-based evaluation

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  • Dewachter, Hans
  • Lyrio, Marco

Abstract

We compute the opportunity cost for rational risk averse agents of using technical trading rules in the foreign exchange rate market. Our purpose is to investigate whether these rules can be interpreted as near-rational investment strategies for rational investors. We analyze four di.erent exchange rates and find that the opportunity cost of using chartist rules tends to be prohibitively high. We also present a method to decompose this opportunity cost into parts related to investor's irrationality and misallocation of wealth. The results show that irrationality of chartist beliefs is an important component of the total opportunity cost of using technical trading rules.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "The cost of technical trading rules in the Forex market: A utility-based evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1072-1089, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:25:y:2006:i:7:p:1072-1089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
    2. LeBaron, B., 1992. "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearites in Foreign Exchange Markets?," Working papers 9222, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Skouras, Spyros, 2001. "Financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 213-244, January.
    4. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    5. Skouras, S., 1998. "Risk Neutral Forecasting," Economics Working Papers eco98/40, European University Institute.
    6. Michael W. Brandt, 1999. "Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1609-1645, October.
    7. S. Skouras, 2001. "Learning to profit with discrete investment rules," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 284-288.
    8. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2005. "The economic value of technical trading rules: a nonparametric utility-based approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 41-62.
    9. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
    10. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    11. Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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