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Racial segregation in the United States since the Great Depression: A dynamic segregation approach

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  • Kollmann, Trevor
  • Marsiglio, Simone
  • Suardi, Sandy

Abstract

Racial segregation is a salient feature of cities in the United States. Models like Schelling (1971) show that segregation can arise through white preferences for residing near minorities. Once the threshold or “tipping point” is passed, the models predict that all whites will leave. Our paper uses census-tract data for six cities in the United States from the 1930s and 1970–2010 to measure decadal, city-specific tipping points. We use a structural break procedure to estimate the tipping points and incorporate these in a regression-discontinuity design to estimate the impact on population trends for neighborhoods that exceed that threshold while controlling for city-specific trends in migration. We find that the magnitude of white flight for neighborhoods that have tipped in 2000 has fallen to between 23% and 36% of the level seen in 1970. There was no discontinuity in white flight after accounting for migration trends during the Great Depression. Finally, we show that in-migration of minorities in tipped neighborhoods do not fill in the gap left by white flight.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollmann, Trevor & Marsiglio, Simone & Suardi, Sandy, 2018. "Racial segregation in the United States since the Great Depression: A dynamic segregation approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 95-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:40:y:2018:i:c:p:95-116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2018.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ingrid Gould Ellen & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Race and the City," Working Papers 2018-022, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Trevor Kollmann & Simone Marsiglio & Sandy Suardi & Marco Tolotti, 2021. "Social interactions, residential segregation and the dynamics of tipping," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1355-1388, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Racial segregation; Tipping; Regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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