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The determinants of homebuilder stock price exposure to lumber: Production cost versus housing demand

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  • Liu, Peng
  • Lu, Xiaomeng
  • Tang, Ke

Abstract

We study the economic linkage between homebuilder stock market performance and commodity futures market information on a major component of building materials—lumber. The price of lumber plays a dual role in determining homebuilder profits: it represents a production input cost and serves as a future housing demand indicator. Using all US publicly listed homebuilder stocks, we show that the housing demand effect dominates the builder–lumber relationship. This effect is robust even after we control for the Federal Housing Finance Association (FHFA) housing price index (HPI). Our results further indicate that the slope of the lumber futures curve serves as a cross-market signal of future housing demand and thus of homebuilder stock market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Peng & Lu, Xiaomeng & Tang, Ke, 2012. "The determinants of homebuilder stock price exposure to lumber: Production cost versus housing demand," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 211-222.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:211-222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Nan & Mei, Bin & Li, Yanshu, 2023. "A review of the financial performance of lumber futures and some prospects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. García Rendon, John Jairo & Cossio Sepúlveda, Daniel Mateo & Mesa Urhan, Ricardo, 2018. "Efectos del canal del crŽdito sobre el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medell’n - Colombia || Credit channel effects on new residential property prices: Evidence from Medell’n, Colombia," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 104-127, Diciembre.
    3. Clements, Sherwood & Tidwell, Alan & Jin, Changha, 2017. "Futures markets and real estate public equity: Connectivity of lumber futures and Timber REITs," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-79.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Homebuilder; Lumber futures; Housing demand; Commodity exposure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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