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Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations

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  • Oakley, Jeremy E.
  • Brennan, Alan
  • Tappenden, Paul
  • Chilcott, Jim

Abstract

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) quantifies the value of removing uncertainty about unknown parameters in a decision model. EVPIs can be computed via Monte Carlo methods. An outer loop samples values of the parameters of interest, and an inner loop samples the remaining parameters from their conditional distribution. This nested Monte Carlo approach can result in biased estimates if small numbers of inner samples are used and can require a large number of model runs for accurate partial EVPI estimates. We present a simple algorithm to estimate the EVPI bias and confidence interval width for a specified number of inner and outer samples. The algorithm uses a relatively small number of model runs (we suggest approximately 600), is quick to compute, and can help determine how many outer and inner iterations are needed for a desired level of accuracy. We test our algorithm using three case studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Oakley, Jeremy E. & Brennan, Alan & Tappenden, Paul & Chilcott, Jim, 2010. "Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 468-477, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:468-477
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    6. Gao, Lei & Bryan, Brett A., 2016. "Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 321(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Malings, Carl & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information for spatially distributed systems: Application to sensor placement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 219-233.
    8. Laura McCullagh & Cathal Walsh & Michael Barry, 2012. "Value-of-Information Analysis to Reduce Decision Uncertainty Associated with the Choice of Thromboprophylaxis after Total Hip Replacement in the Irish Healthcare Setting," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(10), pages 941-959, October.
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    10. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Smith, Curtis L., 2013. "Global sensitivity measures from given data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(3), pages 536-550.

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