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The dynamics of concealment

Author

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  • Bertomeu, Jeremy
  • Marinovic, Iván
  • Terry, Stephen J.
  • Varas, Felipe

Abstract

Firm managers likely have more information than outsiders. If managers strategically conceal information, market uncertainty will increase. We develop a dynamic corporate disclosure model, estimating the model using the management earnings forecasts of US public companies. The model, based on the buildup of reputations by managers over time, matches key facts about forecast dynamics. We find that 80% of firms strategically manage information, that managers have superior information around half of the time, and that firms conceal information about 40% of the time. Concealment increases market uncertainty by just under 8%, a sizable information loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertomeu, Jeremy & Marinovic, Iván & Terry, Stephen J. & Varas, Felipe, 2022. "The dynamics of concealment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 227-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:143:y:2022:i:1:p:227-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.025
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    Cited by:

    1. Anne Beyer & Ronald A. Dye, 2023. "On the Disclosure of Half-Truths and the Duty to Update," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4283-4311, July.
    2. Miles B. Gietzmann & Adam J. Ostaszewski, 2022. "The Kind of Silence: Managing a Reputation for Voluntary Disclosure in Financial Markets," Papers 2210.11315, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voluntary disclosure; Structural estimation; Reputations; Persuasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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