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A population's feasible posterior beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Arieli, Itai
  • Babichenko, Yakov

Abstract

We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We characterize which distributions over the empirical distribution of posterior beliefs in the population are feasible. We apply this result in several domains. First, we study the problem of maximizing the polarization of beliefs in a population. Second, we provide a characterization of the feasible agent-symmetric product distributions of posteriors. Finally, we study an instance of a private Bayesian persuasion problem and provide a clean formula for the sender's optimal value.

Suggested Citation

  • Arieli, Itai & Babichenko, Yakov, 2024. "A population's feasible posterior beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:215:y:2024:i:c:s0022053123001606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105764
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    Keywords

    Feasible posterior distribution; Empirical distributions of posteriors; Polarization; Bayesian persuasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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