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Emergence of information aggregation to rational expectations equilibria in markets populated by biased heuristic traders

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  • Jamal, Karim
  • Maier, Michael
  • Sunder, Shyam

Abstract

Information aggregation is a key economic function of markets. We report results of a computational experiment with markets populated by simple algorithmic traders who follow two heuristics usually thought of as leading to biased information processing in behavioral economics literature (anchor-and-adjust, and representativeness). Outcomes of these markets either tend to cluster around (or fail to do so) rational expectations equilibria under specific conditions, consistent with markets populated by profit-motivated human traders. Algorithmic trader convergence is slower and noisier than that of human traders. Our results illustrate the emergence of rational expectations equilibria through complex interactions among actions of biased heuristic traders with limited information processing capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal, Karim & Maier, Michael & Sunder, Shyam, 2024. "Emergence of information aggregation to rational expectations equilibria in markets populated by biased heuristic traders," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:228:y:2024:i:c:s0167268124003068
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchor-and-adjust; Algorithmic traders; Representativeness heuristic; Rational expectations; Information aggregation; Zero-intelligence agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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