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A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate

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  • Harris, Richard D.F.
  • Yilmaz, Fatih

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency trend component of the spot exchange rate. Using kernel regression and the high-pass filter of Hodrick and Prescott [Hodrick, R., Prescott, E., 1997. Post-war US business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29, 1-16], we recover the non-linear trend in the monthly exchange rate and use short-term momentum in this to generate buy and sell signals. The low frequency momentum trading strategy offers greater directional accuracy, higher returns and Sharpe ratios, lower maximum drawdown and less frequent trading than traditional moving average rules. Moreover, unlike traditional moving average rules, the performance of the low frequency momentum trading strategy is relatively robust across different time periods. The low frequency momentum trading strategy is also robust to the choice of smoothing parameter (in the case of the HP filter) and the distribution and bandwidth parameter (in the case of kernel regression) over a wide range of values.

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  • Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2009. "A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1575-1585, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:9:p:1575-1585
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    3. Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Economics Series 305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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    8. Adrián Fernández-P�rez & Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Detecting trends in the foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 493-503, March.
    9. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
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    13. Harris, Richard D.F. & Shen, Jian & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2022. "Maximally predictable currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Gradojevic, Nikola & Lento, Camillo, 2015. "Multiscale analysis of foreign exchange order flows and technical trading profitability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 156-165.
    15. Levich, Richard M. & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Predictability and ‘good deals’ in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 454-472.
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    17. Park, Young S. & Lee, Jaehyun, 2010. "Detecting insider trading: The theory and validation in Korea Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2110-2120, September.
    18. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    19. Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2015. "An improved moving average technical trading rule," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 458-469.
    20. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    21. Adrián Fernández-P�rez & Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Exploiting trends in the foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 591-597, April.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika & Narayan, Seema & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2015. "Is Exchange Rate Trading Profitable?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 217-229.
    23. Min-Yuh Day & Yensen Ni & Chinning Hsu & Paoyu Huang, 2022. "Do Investment Strategies Matter for Trading Global Clean Energy and Global Energy ETFs?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    24. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    25. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "A Test Of The Efficiency Of The Foreign Exchange Market In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 0(12th BMEB), pages 1-26, January.

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