IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v139y2022ics0378426622000917.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day

Author

Listed:
  • Paudel, Shishir
  • Silveri, Sabatino (Dino)
  • Wu, Mark

Abstract

We use the ex-dividend day setting to examine the association between investor sentiment and asset prices. While the dividend on the ex-day conveys no new information, we find that ex-day prices behave differently during high- versus low-sentiment periods. We show that high investor sentiment is associated with a reduction in the ex-day price-drop of about eight percent of the dividend amount. The magnitude of this association is comparable to those of traditional ex-day explanations. In addition, for stocks that are more sensitive to investor sentiment the effect is significantly larger than traditional ex-day explanations. Overall, our results contribute to the measurement of investor sentiment's relative importance to asset prices and narrow the gap between the theoretically predicted versus the empirically observed ex-day stock price.

Suggested Citation

  • Paudel, Shishir & Silveri, Sabatino (Dino) & Wu, Mark, 2022. "Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:139:y:2022:i:c:s0378426622000917
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106492
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426622000917
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106492?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boyd, John H & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1994. "Ex-dividend Price Behavior of Common Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 711-741.
    2. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Walkling, Ralph A., 1990. "Dividend capture in NASDAQ stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 39-65.
    3. Eades, Kenneth M. & Hess, Patrick J. & Kim, E. Han, 1984. "On interpreting security returns during the ex-dividend period," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-34, March.
    4. C. Austin Barker, 1959. "Price Changes Of Stock‐Dividend Shares At Ex‐Dividend Dates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 373-378, September.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    7. Michaely, Roni, 1991. "Ex-dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: The Case of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 845-859, July.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    9. John R. Graham & Roni Michaely & Michael R. Roberts, 2003. "Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2611-2636, December.
    10. Tyler R. Henry & Jennifer L. Koski, 2017. "Ex-Dividend Profitability and Institutional Trading Skill," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 461-494, February.
    11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    12. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    14. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    15. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    16. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Walkling, Ralph A., 1988. "Short-term trading around ex-dividend days : Additional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 291-298, September.
    17. Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2011. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 367-381, May.
    18. Koski, Jennifer Lynch, 1996. "A Microstructure Analysis of Ex-dividend Stock Price Behavior before and after the 1984 and 1986 Tax Reform Acts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 313-338, July.
    19. James A. Campbell & William Beranek, 1955. "Stock Price Behavior On Ex‐Dividend Dates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 425-429, December.
    20. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1986. "Tax-induced trading around ex-dividend days," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 287-319, July.
    21. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    22. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    23. Sibley, Steven E. & Wang, Yanchu & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2016. "The information content of the sentiment index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-179.
    24. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    25. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    26. Jeff Whitworth & Ramesh P. Rao, 2010. "Do Tax Law Changes Influence Ex‐Dividend Stock Price Behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 419-445, March.
    27. Kalay, Avner, 1982. "The Ex-Dividend Pay Behavior of Stock Prices: A Re-Examination of the Clientele Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1059-1070, September.
    28. Palani‐Rajan Kadapakkam, 2000. "Reduction of Constraints on Arbitrage Trading and Market Efficiency: An Examination of Ex‐Day Returns in Hong Kong after Introduction of Electronic Settlement," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2841-2861, December.
    29. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    30. Eric C. Chang & Tse-Chun Lin & Yan Luo & Jinjuan Ren, 2019. "Ex-Day Returns of Stock Distributions: An Anchoring Explanation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1076-1095, March.
    31. Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2019. "The Dividend Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2153-2199, October.
    32. Massa, Massimo & Yadav, Vijay, 2015. "Investor Sentiment and Mutual Fund Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 699-727, August.
    33. J. B. Chay & Dosoung Choi & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2006. "Market Valuation of Tax‐Timing Options: Evidence from Capital Gains Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 837-865, April.
    34. Michaely, Roni & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1996. "Trading Volume with Private Valuation: Evidence from the Ex-dividend Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 471-509.
    35. Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
    36. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    37. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake, 2005. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Effects and Ex-Dividend-Day Price Behavior: Evidence From Taxable Versus Nontaxable Closed-End Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 579-586, August.
    38. Jakob, Keith & Ma, Tongshu, 2004. "Tick size, NYSE rule 118, and ex-dividend day stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 605-625, June.
    39. Gao, Xiaohui & Ritter, Jay R., 2010. "The marketing of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 33-52, July.
    40. Barclay, Michael J., 1987. "Dividends, taxes, and common stock prices : The ex-dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-44, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xuetong & Zhang, Weiguo, 2023. "Information asymmetry, sentiment interactions, and asset price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vassilis A. Efthymiou & George N. Leledakis, 2014. "The price impact of the disposition effect on the ex-dividend day of NYSE and AMEX common stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 711-724, April.
    2. Shishir Paudel & Sabatino (Dino) Silveri & Mark Wu, 2020. "Nasdaq ex‐day behavior: An out‐of‐sample test," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 405-420, April.
    3. Asimakopoulos, Panagiotis N. & Tsangarakis, Nickolaos V. & Tsiritakis, Emmanuel D., 2015. "Price adjustment method and ex-dividend day returns in a different institutional setting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Keith Jakob & Ryan Whitby, 2017. "The impact of nominal stock price on ex-dividend price responses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 939-953, May.
    5. Ming-Chang Cheng & Ching-Hwa Lee, 2016. "Trading Activities Around Ex-Dividend Days: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Hodgkinson, Lynn & Partington, Graham, 2013. "Capital gains tax, managed funds and the value of dividends: The case of New Zealand," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 271-283.
    7. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H. & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2013. "Ex-dividend prices and investor trades: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 39-65.
    8. Bali, Rakesh & Francis, Jack Clark, 2016. "Ex day effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 11-22.
    9. Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
    10. Khamis Al Yahyaee & Toan Pham & Terry Walter, 2008. "Ex‐Dividend Day Behavior in the Absence of Taxes and Price Discreteness," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 8(3‐4), pages 103-123, September.
    11. Dupuis, Daniel, 2019. "Ex-dividend day price behavior and liquidity in a tax-free emerging market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 239-250.
    12. Chue, Timothy K. & Gul, Ferdinand A. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2019. "Aggregate investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Harris, Lawrence E. & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2015. "Juicing the dividend yield: Mutual funds and the demand for dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 433-451.
    14. Felix Kreidl, 2020. "Stock-Market Behavior on Ex-Dates: New Insights from German Stocks with Tax-Free Dividend," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Liljeblom, Eva & Loflund, Anders & Hedvall, Kaj, 2001. "Foreign and domestic investors and tax induced ex-dividend day trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1687-1716, September.
    16. Kai-Wei (Shaun) Siau & Stephen J. Sault & Geoffrey J. Warren & Henk Berkman, 2015. "Are imputation credits capitalised into stock prices?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 55(1), pages 241-277, March.
    17. Jeff Whitworth & Ramesh P. Rao, 2010. "Do Tax Law Changes Influence Ex‐Dividend Stock Price Behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 419-445, March.
    18. Jeff Whitworth & David A. Carter, 2010. "The Ex‐Day Price Behavior of REITs: Taxes or Ticks?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 733-752, Winter.
    19. William Hardin & Gow-Cheng Huang & Kartono Liano, 2012. "Dividend Size, Yield, Clienteles and REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 435-449, August.
    20. Kose John & Ravi S. Mateti & Duong Nguyen & Gopala Vasudevan, 2016. "The Ex†dividend Day Behaviour of REITs: Tax or Market Microstructure Effects," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 341-366, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Ex-dividend day; Price-drop ratio; Tax; Transaction cost;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:139:y:2022:i:c:s0378426622000917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.