IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v138y2022ics0378426622000103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Longs, shorts, and the cross-section of stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Nezafat, Mahdi
  • Shen, Tao
  • Wang, Qinghai
  • Wu, Julie

Abstract

We study the relation between severe investor disagreement and stock returns based on the observed short-interest and long positions of hedge funds. We show strong disagreements are prevalent among active, sophisticated investors. From 1997 to 2014, 30% of highly shorted stocks have high hedge fund ownership, but these stocks do not earn abnormal returns. Evidence shows that large simultaneous holdings of short sellers and hedge fund managers likely arise from their information-acquisition activities. Although active long or short positions on average predict subsequent stock returns, neither long investors nor short sellers consistently prevail when the two sides disagree.

Suggested Citation

  • Nezafat, Mahdi & Shen, Tao & Wang, Qinghai & Wu, Julie, 2022. "Longs, shorts, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:138:y:2022:i:c:s0378426622000103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106410
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426622000103
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106410?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    2. Charles Cao & Bing Liang & Andrew W Lo & Lubomir Petrasek, 2018. "Hedge Fund Holdings and Stock Market Efficiency," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 77-116.
    3. Yong Chen & Zhi Da & Dayong Huang, 2019. "Arbitrage Trading: The Long and the Short of It," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1608-1646.
    4. Chen, Yong & Kelly, Bryan & Wu, Wei, 2020. "Sophisticated investors and market efficiency: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 316-341.
    5. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
    6. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    7. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    8. Hemang Desai & K. Ramesh & S. Ramu Thiagarajan & Bala V. Balachandran, 2002. "An Investigation of the Informational Role of Short Interest in the Nasdaq Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2263-2287, October.
    9. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Gurun, Umit & Lou, Dong & Malloy, Christopher, 2020. "IQ from IP: Simplifying search in portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 118-137.
    10. Beneish, M.D. & Lee, C.M.C. & Nichols, D.C., 2015. "In short supply: Short-sellers and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 33-57.
    11. Alexander David, 2008. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 41-83, February.
    12. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    13. Vikas Agarwal & Wei Jiang & Yuehua Tang & Baozhong Yang, 2013. "Uncovering Hedge Fund Skill from the Portfolio Holdings They Hide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 739-783, April.
    14. Aragon, George O. & Hertzel, Michael & Shi, Zhen, 2013. "Why Do Hedge Funds Avoid Disclosure? Evidence from Confidential 13F Filings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1499-1518, October.
    15. Chen, Yong & Cliff, Michael & Zhao, Haibei, 2017. "Hedge Funds: The Good, the Bad, and the Lucky," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1081-1109, June.
    16. Asquith, Paul & Pathak, Parag A. & Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 243-276, November.
    17. John M. Griffin & Jin Xu, 2009. "How Smart Are the Smart Guys? A Unique View from Hedge Fund Stock Holdings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2331-2370, July.
    18. Andrew B. Abel, "undated". "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    19. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
    20. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "Which Shorts Are Informed?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 491-527, April.
    21. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2010. "The good news in short interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 80-97, April.
    22. Ekkehart Boehmer & Eric K. Kelley, 2009. "Institutional Investors and the Informational Efficiency of Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3563-3594, September.
    23. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    24. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    25. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Reed, Adam V. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C., 2012. "How are shorts informed?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 260-278.
    26. Tim Loughran & Bill McDonald, 2017. "The Use of EDGAR Filings by Investors," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 231-248, April.
    27. Carlin, Bruce I. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Matoba, Kyle, 2014. "Disagreement and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 226-238.
    28. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    29. Joshua Livnat & Richard R. Mendenhall, 2006. "Comparing the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift for Surprises Calculated from Analyst and Time Series Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 177-205, March.
    30. Ekkehart Boehmer & Juan (Julie) Wu, 2013. "Short Selling and the Price Discovery Process," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 287-322.
    31. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    32. Michael S. Drake & Darren T. Roulstone & Jacob R. Thornock, 2015. "The Determinants and Consequences of Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 1128-1161, September.
    33. Jiao, Yawen & Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Hong, 2016. "Short selling meets hedge fund 13F: An anatomy of informed demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 544-567.
    34. Pedro A. C. Saffi & Kari Sigurdsson, 2011. "Price Efficiency and Short Selling," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 821-852.
    35. Pontiff, Jeffrey, 2006. "Costly arbitrage and the myth of idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 35-52, October.
    36. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Gurun, Umit & Lou, Dong & Malloy, Christopher, 2020. "IQ from IP: simplifying search in portfolio choice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101133, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    37. Nezafat, Mahdi & Schroder, Mark & Wang, Qinghai, 2017. "Short-sale constraints, information acquisition, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 273-312.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yong & Kelly, Bryan & Wu, Wei, 2020. "Sophisticated investors and market efficiency: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 316-341.
    2. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Melissa Porras Prado & Pedro A. C. Saffi & Jason Sturgess, 2016. "Ownership Structure, Limits to Arbitrage, and Stock Returns: Evidence from Equity Lending Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3211-3244.
    4. Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal, 2019. "Short Interest and Lottery Stocks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 187-227, March.
    5. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3211-3244. is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Adrian W. K. Cheung & Hung Wan Kot & Eric F. Y. Lam & Harry K. M. Leung, 2020. "Toward understanding short‐selling activity: demand and supply," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2203-2230, September.
    7. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    8. Yang, Lisa (Zongfei) & Goh, Jeremy & Chiyachantana, Chiraphol, 2016. "Valuation uncertainty, market sentiment and the informativeness of institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 81-98.
    9. Hillert, Alexander & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2018. "Journalist disagreement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-76.
    10. Chung, Chune Young & DeVault, Luke & Wang, Kainan, 2019. "Perceived information, short interest, and institutional demand," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 22-38.
    11. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
    12. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    14. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    15. Yong Chen & Bryan Kelly & Wei Wu, 2018. "Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 24552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hu, Yingyi & Zhao, Tiao & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Noise trading, institutional trading, and opinion divergence: Evidence on intraday data in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 74-89.
    17. Charles M. Jones & Adam V. Reed & William Waller, 2016. "Revealing Shorts An Examination of Large Short Position Disclosures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3278-3320.
    18. Hackney, John & Henry, Tyler R. & Koski, Jennifer L., 2020. "Arbitrage vs. informed short selling: Evidence from convertible bond issuers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Alexander, Gordon J. & Peterson, Mark A. & Beardsley, Xiaoxin Wang, 2014. "The puzzling behavior of short sellers around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 255-278.
    20. Tsai, Chia-Fen & Chang, Jung-Hsien & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2021. "Lottery preferences and retail short selling," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Beneish, M.D. & Lee, C.M.C. & Nichols, D.C., 2015. "In short supply: Short-sellers and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 33-57.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short selling; Hedge funds; Stock returns; Strong investor disagreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:138:y:2022:i:c:s0378426622000103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.