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Forecasting ATM cash demands using a local learning model of cerebellar associative memory network


  • Teddy, S.D.
  • Ng, S.K.


Forecasting cash demands at automatic teller machines (ATMs) is challenging, due to the heteroskedastic nature of such time series. Conventional global learning computational intelligence (CI) models, with their generalized learning behaviors, may not capture the complex dynamics and time-varying characteristics of such real-life time series data efficiently. In this paper, we propose to use a novel local learning model of the pseudo self-evolving cerebellar model articulation controller (PSECMAC) associative memory network to produce accurate forecasts of ATM cash demands. As a computational model of the human cerebellum, our model can incorporate local learning to effectively model the complex dynamics of heteroskedastic time series. We evaluated the forecasting performance of our PSECMAC model against the performances of current established CI and regression models using the NN5 competition dataset of 111 empirical daily ATM cash withdrawal series. The evaluation results show that the forecasting capability of our PSECMAC model exceeds that of the benchmark local and global-learning based models.

Suggested Citation

  • Teddy, S.D. & Ng, S.K., 2011. "Forecasting ATM cash demands using a local learning model of cerebellar associative memory network," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 760-776, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:3:p:760-776

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Balkin, Sandy D. & Ord, J. Keith, 2000. "Automatic neural network modeling for univariate time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 509-515.
    2. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Nikolaev, Nikolay Y., 2006. "Forecasting with genetically programmed polynomial neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 249-265.
    3. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    4. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
    5. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-364, Oct.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Ágoston, Kolos Cs. & Benedek, Gábor & Gilányi, Zsolt, 2016. "Pareto improvement and joint cash management optimisation for banks and cash-in-transit firms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(3), pages 1074-1082.

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    NN5 Time series forecasting PSECMAC Local learning model;

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