IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v119y2024icp179-193.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation of guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit with the long-term care option

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Yang
  • Chen, Shaoying
  • Cui, Zhenyu
  • Zhang, Zhimin

Abstract

In this paper, under the stochastic interest rate framework, we consider the valuation of a Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) annuity product by explicitly incorporating the health state of the policyholder through the long-term care (LTC) option. The product provides policyholders with protection against longevity risk and market downturns, as well as financial support when facing LTC needs. Within the context of dynamic withdrawals, the valuation of the GLWB annuity with the LTC option is characterized as a stochastic optimal control problem. We introduce a novel bang-bang analysis approach without the usual convexity assumption in literature and prove that the optimal withdrawal strategies for the policyholder are constrained to a finite set. Furthermore, we perform a sensitivity analysis on the price determinants of GLWB annuities with and without the LTC option, and provide economic interpretations. Lastly, we investigate the impact of gender on the optimal withdrawal strategy and the fair fee of the annuity with the LTC option.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yang & Chen, Shaoying & Cui, Zhenyu & Zhang, Zhimin, 2024. "Valuation of guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit with the long-term care option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 179-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:119:y:2024:i:c:p:179-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668724000994
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2024.09.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2006. "Longevity Bonds: Financial Engineering, Valuation, and Hedging," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 647-672, December.
    2. Kang, Boda & Shen, Yang & Zhu, Dan & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2022. "Valuation of guaranteed minimum maturity benefits under generalised regime-switching models using the Fourier Cosine method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 96-127.
    3. Gong, Guan & Webb, Anthony, 2010. "Evaluating the Advanced Life Deferred Annuity -- An annuity people might actually buy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 210-221, February.
    4. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Millossovich, Pietro & Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2011. "Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 285-297.
    5. Parsiad Azimzadeh & Peter A. Forsyth, 2015. "The existence of optimal bang-bang controls for GMxB contracts," Papers 1502.05743, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    6. Günther, Sascha & Hieber, Peter, 2024. "Analyzing the interest rate risk of equity-indexed annuities via scenario matrices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 15-28.
    7. Gao, Jin & Ulm, Eric R., 2015. "Optimal allocation and consumption with guaranteed minimum death benefits, external income and term life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 87-98.
    8. Zhenyu Cui & Runhuan Feng & Anne MacKay, 2017. "Variable Annuities with VIX-Linked Fee Structure under a Heston-Type Stochastic Volatility Model," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 458-483, July.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2015. "Optimal retirement income tontines," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-105.
    10. Rhee, Jong Chul & Done, Nicolae & Anderson, Gerard F., 2015. "Considering long-term care insurance for middle-income countries: comparing South Korea with Japan and Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(10), pages 1319-1329.
    11. David C. Webb, 2009. "Asymmetric Information, Long‐Term Care Insurance, and Annuities: The Case for Bundled Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 53-85, March.
    12. Fontana, Claudio & Rotondi, Francesco, 2023. "Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 142-167.
    13. Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Luo, Xiaolin, 2017. "Valuation of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under stochastic interest rate," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 104-117.
    14. Cui, Zhenyu & Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2017. "Equity-linked annuity pricing with cliquet-style guarantees in regime-switching and stochastic volatility models with jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 46-62.
    15. Joelle H. Fong & Adam W. Shao & Michael Sherris, 2015. "Multistate Actuarial Models of Functional Disability," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 41-59, January.
    16. Chen, An & Rach, Manuel, 2023. "Actuarial fairness and social welfare in mixed-cohort tontines," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-229.
    17. Anne MacKay & Marie-Claude Vachon & Zhenyu Cui, 2023. "Analysis of VIX-linked fee incentives in variable annuities via continuous-time Markov chain approximation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1055-1078, August.
    18. Kouritzin, Michael A. & MacKay, Anne, 2018. "VIX-linked fees for GMWBs via explicit solution simulation methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-17.
    19. Coleman, Thomas F. & Li, Yuying & Patron, Maria-Cristina, 2006. "Hedging guarantees in variable annuities under both equity and interest rate risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-228, April.
    20. Yao Tung Huang & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2016. "Regression-based Monte Carlo methods for stochastic control models: variable annuities with lifelong guarantees," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 905-928, June.
    21. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Maggistro, Rosario & Zoccolan, Ivan, 2024. "Risk-neutral valuation of GLWB riders in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-14.
    22. Adam W. Shao & Michael Sherris & Joelle H. Fong, 2017. "Product pricing and solvency capital requirements for long-term care insurance," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2017(2), pages 175-208, February.
    23. Shao, Adam W. & Chen, Hua & Sherris, Michael, 2019. "To borrow or insure? Long term care costs and the impact of housing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 15-34.
    24. Luo, Xiaolin & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Valuation of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal and death benefits via stochastic control optimization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 5-15.
    25. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "Valuation of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under Stochastic Interest Rate," Papers 1602.03238, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    26. Ignatieva, Katja & Song, Andrew & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Pricing and hedging of guaranteed minimum benefits under regime-switching and stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-300.
    27. Jason Brown & Mark Warshawsky, 2013. "The Life Care Annuity: A New Empirical Examination of an Insurance Innovation That Addresses Problems in the Markets for Life Annuities and Long-Term Care Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 677-704, September.
    28. Dunlop, D.D. & Hughes, S.L. & Manheim, L.M., 1997. "Disability in activities of daily living: Patterns of change and a hierarchy of disability," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(3), pages 378-383.
    29. D. J. Pritchard, 2006. "Modeling Disability in Long-Term Care Insurance," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 48-75.
    30. Michael A. Kouritzin & Anne MacKay, 2017. "VIX-linked fees for GMWBs via Explicit Solution Simulation Methods," Papers 1708.06886, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    31. Levantesi, Susanna & Menzietti, Massimiliano, 2012. "Managing longevity and disability risks in life annuities with long term care," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 391-401.
    32. Claudio Fontana & Francesco Rotondi, 2022. "Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment," Papers 2208.10183, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    33. Kang, Boda & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2018. "Optimal surrender of guaranteed minimum maturity benefits under stochastic volatility and interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 43-56.
    34. Bauer, Daniel & Kling, Alexander & Russ, Jochen, 2008. "A Universal Pricing Framework for Guaranteed Minimum Benefits in Variable Annuities 1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 621-651, November.
    35. Hsieh, Ming-hua & Wang, Jennifer L. & Chiu, Yu-Fen & Chen, Yen-Chih, 2018. "Valuation of variable long-term care Annuities with Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefits: A variance reduction approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 246-254.
    36. Chen, An & Li, Hong & Schultze, Mark, 2022. "Collective longevity swap: A novel longevity risk transfer solution and its economic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 227-249.
    37. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2021. "Banks and Negative Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 201-218, November.
    38. Ventura-Marco, Manuel & Vidal-Meliá, Carlos & Pérez-Salamero González, Juan Manuel, 2023. "Joint life care annuities to help retired couples to finance the cost of long-term care," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 122-139.
    39. Xiaolin Luo & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2014. "Valuation of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal and Death Benefits via Stochastic Control Optimization," Papers 1411.5453, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
    40. Chi, Yichun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2012. "Are Flexible Premium Variable Annuities Under-Priced?," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 559-574, November.
    41. Forsyth, Peter & Vetzal, Kenneth, 2014. "An optimal stochastic control framework for determining the cost of hedging of variable annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 29-53.
    42. Hanewald, Katja & Li, Han & Shao, Adam W., 2019. "Modelling multi-state health transitions in China: a generalised linear model with time trends," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 145-165, March.
    43. Min Dai & Yue Kuen Kwok & Jianping Zong, 2008. "Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit In Variable Annuities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 595-611, October.
    44. Carole Bernard & Zhenyu Cui & Steven Vanduffel, 2017. "Impact of Flexible Periodic Premiums on Variable Annuity Guarantees," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 63-86, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yaowen Lu & Duy-Minh Dang, 2023. "A semi-Lagrangian $\epsilon$-monotone Fourier method for continuous withdrawal GMWBs under jump-diffusion with stochastic interest rate," Papers 2310.00606, arXiv.org.
    2. Fontana, Claudio & Rotondi, Francesco, 2023. "Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 142-167.
    3. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Maggistro, Rosario & Zoccolan, Ivan, 2024. "Risk-neutral valuation of GLWB riders in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Equity-linked Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits with dollar cost averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 408-428.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Francesco Rotondi, 2022. "Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment," Papers 2208.10183, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    6. Jin Sun & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Man Chung Fung, 2018. "The Impact of Management Fees on the Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Dong, Bing & Xu, Wei & Sevic, Aleksandar & Sevic, Zeljko, 2020. "Efficient willow tree method for variable annuities valuation and risk management☆," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, July.
    9. Zhenyu Cui & Anne MacKay & Marie-Claude Vachon, 2022. "Analysis of VIX-linked fee incentives in variable annuities via continuous-time Markov chain approximation," Papers 2207.14793, arXiv.org.
    10. Kouritzin, Michael A. & MacKay, Anne, 2018. "VIX-linked fees for GMWBs via explicit solution simulation methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.
    12. Jin Sun & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Man Chung Fung, 2017. "A note on the impact of management fees on the pricing of variable annuity guarantees," Papers 1705.03787, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    13. Feng, Runhuan & Jing, Xiaochen & Ng, Kenneth Tsz Hin, 2025. "Optimal investment-withdrawal strategy for variable annuities under a performance fee structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    14. Martin Eling & Omid Ghavibazoo, 2019. "Research on long-term care insurance: status quo and directions for future research," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 303-356, April.
    15. Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Luo, Xiaolin, 2017. "Valuation of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under stochastic interest rate," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 104-117.
    16. Moenig, Thorsten, 2021. "Variable annuities: Market incompleteness and policyholder behavior," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-78.
    17. Hsieh, Ming-hua & Wang, Jennifer L. & Chiu, Yu-Fen & Chen, Yen-Chih, 2018. "Valuation of variable long-term care Annuities with Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefits: A variance reduction approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 246-254.
    18. Michael A. Kouritzin & Anne MacKay, 2017. "VIX-linked fees for GMWBs via Explicit Solution Simulation Methods," Papers 1708.06886, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    19. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    20. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "A unified pricing of variable annuity guarantees under the optimal stochastic control framework," Papers 1605.00339, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term care; Variable annuities; Bang-bang analysis; Optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:119:y:2024:i:c:p:179-193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.