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A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures

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  • Genge, Béla
  • Kiss, István
  • Haller, Piroska

Abstract

The massive proliferation of information and communications technologies (hardware and software) into the heart of modern critical infrastructures has given birth to a unique technological ecosystem. Despite the many advantages brought about by modern information and communications technologies, the shift from isolated environments to “systems-of-systems” integrated with massive information and communications infrastructures (e.g., the Internet) exposes critical infrastructures to significant cyber threats. Therefore, it is imperative to develop approaches for identifying and ranking assets in complex, large-scale and heterogeneous critical infrastructures. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The methodology is inspired by research in system dynamics and sensitivity analysis. The proposed behavioral analysis methodology computes the covariances of the observed variables before and after the execution of a specific intervention involving the control variables. Metrics are proposed for quantifying the significance of control variables and measuring the impact propagation of cyber attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Genge, Béla & Kiss, István & Haller, Piroska, 2015. "A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 3-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:10:y:2015:i:c:p:3-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2015.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. González, Santiago G. & Dormido Canto, S. & Sánchez Moreno, José, 2020. "Obtaining high preventive and resilience capacities in critical infrastructure by industrial automation cells," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
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    3. Adrian-Silviu Roman, 2023. "Evaluating the Privacy and Utility of Time-Series Data Perturbation Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, March.
    4. A. Sardi & E. Sorano, 2021. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Papers 2102.04090, arXiv.org.
    5. Genge, Béla & Haller, Piroska & Kiss, István, 2016. "A framework for designing resilient distributed intrusion detection systems for critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 3-11.
    6. Baraldi, Piero & Castellano, Andrea & Shokry, Ahmed & Gentile, Ugo & Serio, Luigi & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "A Feature Selection-based Approach for the Identification of Critical Components in Complex Technical Infrastructures: Application to the CERN Large Hadron Collider," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Palleti, Venkata Reddy & Joseph, Jude Victor & Silva, Arlindo, 2018. "A contribution of axiomatic design principles to the analysis and impact of attacks on critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 21-32.
    8. Alberto Sardi & Enrico Sorano, 2019. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Hayes, Darren R. & Cappa, Francesco, 2018. "Open-source intelligence for risk assessment," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 689-697.
    10. Ahmed Shokry & Piero Baraldi & Andrea Castellano & Luigi Serio & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Identification of Critical Components in the Complex Technical Infrastructure of the Large Hadron Collider Using Relief Feature Ranking and Support Vector Machines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Chatzis, Petros & Stavrou, Eliana, 2022. "Cyber-threat landscape of border control infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    12. Siwar Kriaa & Marc Bouissou & Youssef Laarouchi, 2019. "A new safety and security risk analysis framework for industrial control systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(2), pages 151-174, April.
    13. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Michał Syfert & Andrzej Ordys & Jan Maciej Kościelny & Paweł Wnuk & Jakub Możaryn & Krzysztof Kukiełka, 2022. "Integrated Approach to Diagnostics of Failures and Cyber-Attacks in Industrial Control Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-24, August.
    15. Qianxiang Zhu & Yuanqing Qin & Chunjie Zhou & Weiwei Gao, 2018. "Extended multilevel flow model-based dynamic risk assessment for cybersecurity protection in industrial production systems," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 14(6), pages 15501477187, June.
    16. Leszczyna, Rafał, 2018. "Standards on cyber security assessment of smart grid," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-89.
    17. Galbraith, John W. & Iuliani, Luca, 2019. "Measures of robustness for networked critical infrastructure: An empirical comparison on four electrical grids," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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