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Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

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  • Yousefpour, Rasoul
  • Didion, Markus
  • Jacobsen, Jette B.
  • Meilby, Henrik
  • Hengeveld, Geerten M.
  • Schelhaas, Mart-Jan
  • Thorsen, Bo J.

Abstract

We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yousefpour, Rasoul & Didion, Markus & Jacobsen, Jette B. & Meilby, Henrik & Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schelhaas, Mart-Jan & Thorsen, Bo J., 2015. "Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:54:y:2015:i:c:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yousefpour, Rasoul & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2009. "Modelling of forest conversion planning with an adaptive simulation-optimization approach and simultaneous consideration of the values of timber, carbon and biodiversity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1711-1722, April.
    2. Ole Christensen & Clare Goodess & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2012. "Methodological framework of the PESETA project on the impacts of climate change in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 7-28, May.
    3. Bleda, Mercedes & Shackley, Simon, 2008. "The dynamics of belief in climate change and its risks in business organisations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 517-532, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jolijn Engelenburg & Rosa Hueting & Sjoerd Rijpkema & Adriaan J. Teuling & Remko Uijlenhoet & Fulco Ludwig, 2018. "Impact of Changes in Groundwater Extractions and Climate Change on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in a Complex Hydrogeological Setting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 259-272, January.
    2. Sotirov, Metodi & Sallnäs, Ola & Eriksson, Ljusk Ola, 2019. "Forest owner behavioral models, policy changes, and forest management. An agent-based framework for studying the provision of forest ecosystem goods and services at the landscape level," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 79-89.
    3. Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schüll, Elmar & Trubins, Renats & Sallnäs, Ola, 2017. "Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 245-255.
    4. Augustynczik, Andrey Lessa Derci & Arce, Julio Eduardo & Yousefpour, Rasoul & da Silva, Arinei Carlos Lindbeck, 2016. "Promoting harvesting stands connectivity and its economic implications in Brazilian forest plantations applying integer linear programming and simulated annealing," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 120-129.

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