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Permanence of agricultural afforestation for carbon sequestration under stylized carbon markets in the U.S

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  • Haim, David
  • White, Eric M.
  • Alig, Ralph J.

Abstract

This paper examines the permanence of agricultural land afforestation under stylized carbon markets at the regional level in the US. Attention is focused on Southern and Midwest regions which historically have experienced a relatively large amount of land-use change between the agriculture and forest sectors. The Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model–Greenhouse Gases model is used to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Main findings suggest that most of afforested area in the Midwest regions remains unharvested by mid-21th century but a significant percentage of afforested area in the Southern regions shifts back to agricultural uses by this time. We also simulated a policy where carbon sequestration credits paid for afforestation are reduced 40% relative to other mitigation actions. A permanence value reduction for afforestation further promotes the harvesting of afforested stands in the Southern regions. Also, it has an impact not only on grassland pasture but also on high productive cropland. Results of this analysis are robust to lower permanence value reduction rates for higher carbon prices and can serve as upper bound of impacts for lower carbon prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Haim, David & White, Eric M. & Alig, Ralph J., 2014. "Permanence of agricultural afforestation for carbon sequestration under stylized carbon markets in the U.S," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 12-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:12-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.12.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heng-Chi Lee & Bruce McCarl & Uwe Schneider & Chi-Chung Chen, 2007. "Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 471-494, May.
    2. Brian C. Murray & Bruce A. McCarl & Heng-Chi Lee, 2004. "Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 109-124.
    3. Latta, Gregory & Adams, Darius M. & Alig, Ralph J. & White, Eric, 2011. "Simulated effects of mandatory versus voluntary participation in private forest carbon offset markets in the United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 127-141, April.
    4. Kim, Man-Keun & McCarl, Bruce A. & Murray, Brian C., 2008. "Permanence discounting for land-based carbon sequestration," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 763-769, February.
    5. Brent Sohngen & Sandra Brown, 2008. "Extending timber rotations: carbon and cost implications," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 435-451, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    2. Manley, Bruce, 2018. "Forecasting the effect of carbon price and log price on the afforestation rate in New Zealand," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 112-120.

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