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Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs

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Abstract

Leakage from forest carbon sequestration—the amount of a program’s direct carbon benefits undermined by carbon releases elsewhere—depends critically on demanders’ ability to substitute non-reserved timber for timber targeted by the program. Analytic, econometric, and sector-level optimization models are combined to estimate leakage from different forest carbon sequestration activities. Empirical estimates for the U.S. show leakage ranges from minimal ( 90 percent), depending on the activity and region. These results suggest that leakage effects should not be ignored in accounting for the net level of greenhouse gas offsets from land use change and forestry mitigation activities.

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  • Brian C. Murray & Bruce A. McCarl & Heng-Chi Lee, 2004. "Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20043, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20043
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    Keywords

    forestry; climate change mitigation; land use change;

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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