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Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs

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  • Ikeda, Naoshi

Abstract

The long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs) suggests that aftermarket prices are overvalued. According to the theory of heterogeneous beliefs and short-sale constraints, the aftermarket price of IPOs is overvalued; in addition, their performance deteriorates when the mean level of optimism and degree of divergence of investors’ opinions increase. I examine this phenomenon by estimating the mean and divergence of investor opinion distribution by focusing on Japanese auction-method IPOs. According to the results, both optimism and divergence cause the overvaluation of IPO’s first-day market price; however, only the mean level of optimism is statistically significant in explaining post-IPO underperformance.

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  • Ikeda, Naoshi, 2023. "Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s1386418122000891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2022.100800
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Initial public offering; Long-run performance; Heterogeneous beliefs; Optimism; Investor opinion; First-day market price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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