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Gold vs. “digital gold”: Bitcoin’s market positioning in the Trump 2.0 era

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  • Julaiti, Jiansuer
  • Li, Yujia
  • Song, Ke

Abstract

The Trump administration has accelerated Bitcoin’s evolution from a retail-driven speculative vehicle into an institutionally recognized asset class. Therefore, Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are likely to undergo changes. We examine the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin and gold across distinct crisis periods, and crucially, the evolution of Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes during the Trump 2.0 era. We employ a novel frequency-domain decomposition approach of connectedness and an enhanced quantile Granger causality test with filtering to analyze daily data spanning 2015–2025. Our analysis reveals that prior to the Trump 2.0 era, Bitcoin and gold were effective hedges only during medium-term crises such as black swan events or sectoral collapses. Notably, their operational mechanisms diverged: Bitcoin’s market isolation mitigates systemic spillovers, whereas gold relies on intrinsic value preservation. In the Trump 2.0 period, the similarities between Bitcoin and gold disappear; however, Bitcoin appears to retain safe-haven properties during medium-term crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Julaiti, Jiansuer & Li, Yujia & Song, Ke, 2026. "Gold vs. “digital gold”: Bitcoin’s market positioning in the Trump 2.0 era," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:88:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325024389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.109189
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