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Predicting China's transportation sector volatility: Evidence from a new economic indicator

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  • Li, Jian

Abstract

This study investigates the predictive capacity of express business volume in forecasting the volatility of China’s transportation index. The findings reveal that express business volume surpasses traditional macroeconomic indicators, offering a more accurate prediction of transportation sector volatility. Robustness tests consistently emphasize the advantages of express business volume across various conditions. As China’s role in global logistics continues to strengthen, this indicator is expected to become increasingly important for economic analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jian, 2025. "Predicting China's transportation sector volatility: Evidence from a new economic indicator," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:84:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325010967
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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