IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v77y2025ics1544612325004052.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax incentives and household consumption: Evidence from the personal income tax reform

Author

Listed:
  • Zhan, Xinyu
  • Liang, Lanxin
  • Yu, Mingzhe

Abstract

This study focuses on the impact of tax incentives on household consumption in the context of personal income tax reform. Our results show that the 2018 personal income tax reform increases household consumption, and the primary mechanism through which the reform promotes consumption operates through increased disposable income, with its magnitude being influenced by liquidity constraint theory and precautionary savings theory. The implementation of special additional deductions in 2018 personal income tax increases household consumption, however, not all deduction items can promote consumption. In different income levels and income types, there is a different effect in this reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan, Xinyu & Liang, Lanxin & Yu, Mingzhe, 2025. "Tax incentives and household consumption: Evidence from the personal income tax reform," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325004052
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325004052
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107142?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. Martin Browning & M. Dolores Collado, 2001. "The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 681-692, June.
    3. Joel Slemrod, 2018. "Is This Tax Reform, or Just Confusion?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    4. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:257-345 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Baugh, Brian & Ben-David, Itzhak & Park, Hoonsuk, 2013. "Disentangling Financial Constraints, Precautionary Savings, and Myopia: Household Behavior Surrounding Federal Tax Returns," Working Paper Series 2013-20, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    6. Xie, Qian & Ke, Haie & Peng, Juan, 2024. "Impacts of Financial Literacy on Elderly Households’ Consumption," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    7. Pengpeng Yue & Linlin Yu & Jun Zhou & Haigang Zhou, 2023. "Peer effects of income in consumption," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 2156576-215, December.
    8. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    9. Robert J. Barro & Jason Furman, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of the 2017 Tax Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 257-345.
    10. Liu, Taixing & Fan, Miaomiao & Li, Youwei & Yue, Pengpeng, 2024. "Financial literacy and household financial resilience," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
    12. Cody Kallen & Aparna Mathur, 2021. "Estimating the Distributional Implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 721-759.
    13. Xu, Dandan & Guo, Dongli & Yue, Pengpeng & Li, Mengshi, 2024. "Household green consumption: Does digital inclusion matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Zhou, Linjiang & Shi, Xiaochuan & Bao, Yaxiong & Gao, Lihua & Ma, Chao, 2023. "Explainable artificial intelligence for digital finance and consumption upgrading," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    15. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
    16. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July.
    17. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2003. "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 397-405, March.
    18. Deng, Xin & Yu, Mingzhe, 2021. "Does the marginal child increase household debt? – Evidence from the new fertility policy in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Jon Bakija, 2024. "The US Individual Income Tax: Recent Evolution and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 33-60, Summer.
    20. William Gale & Hilary Gelfond & Aaron Krupkin & Mark J. Mazur & Eric Toder, 2018. "A Preliminary Assessment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 71(4), pages 589-612, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    2. d’Astous, Philippe, 2019. "Responses to an anticipated increase in cash on hand: Evidence from term loan repayments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. repec:pri:wwseco:dp231 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    5. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2008. "The Response of Household Saving to the Large Shock of German Reunification," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-21, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    6. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2007. "The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates: Evidence from consumer credit data," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln, 2005. "Adjustment to a Large Shock - Do Households Smooth Low Frequency Consumption?," 2005 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
    9. Agarwal, Sumit & Koo, Kang Mo & Qian, Wenlan, 2022. "Consumption response to temporary price shock: Evidence from Singapore's annual sale event," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Milkman, Katherine L. & Beshears, John, 2009. "Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 384-394, August.
    11. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Shimizutani, Satoshi & Hori, Masahiro, 2010. "Did Japan's shopping coupon program increase spending?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(7-8), pages 523-529, August.
    12. Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2006. "Consumer response to the 1998 tax cut: Is a temporary tax cut effective?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 269-287, June.
    13. Ni, Shawn & Seol, Youn, 2014. "New evidence on excess sensitivity of household consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 80-94.
    14. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "Do Banks Pass through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who want to Borrow?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 129-190.
    15. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    16. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Roberta Zizza, 2015. "Accessorizing. The effect of union contract renewals on consumption," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1024, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
    18. Broda, Christian & Parker, Jonathan A., 2014. "The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the aggregate demand for consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 20-36.
    19. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    20. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Meier, Stephan & Zou, Xin, 2020. "In the mood to consume: Effect of sunshine on credit card spending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    21. HORI Masahiro & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2007. "The Reaction of Household Expenditure to an Anticipated Income Change: Clean Evidence from Bonus Payments to Public Employees in Japan," ESRI Discussion paper series 191, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325004052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.