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Surfacing, as well as testing, “elliptical assumptions” in a theory of change: Principled discovery

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  • Mark, Melvin M.

Abstract

While the testing of known assumptions in a theory of change is important, so too is the discovery or surfacing of previously unrecognized assumptions. This paper describes and illustrates the surfacing of “elliptical assumptions,” which involve the unknown ingredients that are necessary for a program to be effective. Identifying the ingredients of program success is important for several reasons, which include (a) guiding the development of an improved theory of change, which in turn can guide program improvement, and (b) informing efforts to transfer the program to other settings and populations. However, when an observed pattern, such as differential program effects, points to the existence of a previously unidentified but important ingredient, this might be a just-so story, a seemingly compelling but inaccurate account. Accordingly, the testing of previously unidentified elliptical assumptions is recommended and illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark, Melvin M., 2023. "Surfacing, as well as testing, “elliptical assumptions” in a theory of change: Principled discovery," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:97:y:2023:i:c:s0149718923000435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2023.102266
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    1. Matthew M. Chingos & Kenneth A. Couch, 2013. "Class Size and Student Outcomes: Research and Policy Implications," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 411-438, March.
    2. Nkwake, Apollo M. & Morrow, Nathan, 2016. "Clarifying concepts and categories of assumptions for use in evaluation," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 97-101.
    3. David Sims, 2008. "A strategic response to class size reduction: Combination classes and student achievement in California," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 457-478.
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    1. Nakaima, April & Sridharan, Sanjeev & Gibson, Rachael, 2023. "Towards an evolutionary approach to learning from assumptions: Lessons from the evaluation of Dancing with Parkinson’s," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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