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Forecasting demand for critical metals in China's new energy vehicle power batteries

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yibo
  • Wang, Chenyu
  • Li, Li
  • Lei, Yalin
  • Wu, Sanmang
  • Ren, Chenxu
  • Cui, Yanfang
  • Wang, Zengchuan
  • Hu, Yilin
  • Wang, Xinli

Abstract

Driven by China's dual carbo goals, the rapid expansion of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry has sharply increased demand for critical metals, challenging resource security and supply chain stability. To address the overlooked regional heterogeneity, this study developed a three-stage framework “historical accounting → driver attribution → future forecasting”. Using Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (DMFA), it quantified provincial demand for lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), and manganese (Mn) in NEV batteries from 2011 to 2022 across 31 provinces. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model identified industrial structure as the dominant driver of regional disparities. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model further forecasted provincial demand trends and uncertainties for 2023–2030. Results revealed an exponential, coastal-concentrated growth forming a clear “coastal–inland gradient”, with eastern provinces leading but facing higher uncertainty, while central and western regions show strong growth potential. These insights highlighted an emerging spatial “rebalancing” and provided empirical support for region-specific, forward-looking resource and industrial policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yibo & Wang, Chenyu & Li, Li & Lei, Yalin & Wu, Sanmang & Ren, Chenxu & Cui, Yanfang & Wang, Zengchuan & Hu, Yilin & Wang, Xinli, 2026. "Forecasting demand for critical metals in China's new energy vehicle power batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:342:y:2026:i:c:s0360544225048431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139201
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