Spatiotemporal grey evolution in the dual control of the energy consumption

Against the backdrop of the intensifying global climate change and energy governance pressures, China, as the world’s largest energy consumer, is confronted with dual challenges of the reducing carbon emissions while sustaining economic growth. Existing models have limitations in analyzing spatiotemporal interactions and heterogeneity. To address this, this study developed a novel spatial disturbance grey model. The integration of the spatial non-equal accumulation parameters and a multidimensional information fusion mechanism was implemented to strengthen spatiotemporal coupling capabilities. The methodology adheres to First Law of Geography and core principles of the grey system theory. And it has been successfully applied to the dual control analysis of energy consumption in 30 provinces in China. Empirical analysis revealed the dual effects of the positive synergy-negative inhibition in regional energy consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Policy continuity is projected to exacerbate regional disparities in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, with intensified spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects of energy consumption. By 2030, the energy intensity is expected to exhibit a unique diagonal bounded clustering pattern between Heilongjiang and Guizhou provinces. These findings provide theoretical foundations and actionable pathways for provincial energy governance planning in China.