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Quantifying the impacts of weather year selection on power sector capacity expansion models

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  • Pecora, Braden
  • Rhodes, Joshua D.
  • Webber, Michael E.

Abstract

Capacity expansion models (CEMs) guide long-term electricity grid investments but often rely on load and renewable generation profiles from a single historical year, known as the base weather year. Because weather affects power plant performance and drives electricity demand through the built environment’s thermal loads, renewable generation and load profiles are usually selected from the same weather year. Modelers then scale that year’s profiles to estimate future demand. However, because of the year-to-year variability in supply and demand, projections based on a single year could yield ambiguous insights, which raises the question of the importance of weather year selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Pecora, Braden & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Webber, Michael E., 2025. "Quantifying the impacts of weather year selection on power sector capacity expansion models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:340:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225046213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138979
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