Integrated optimization model to explore the green transformation of energy-intensive industrial parks from environmental-economic perspectives

Energy-intensive industrial parks (IPs) are facing significant environmental and resource challenges while driving economic growth. Their green and low-carbon transformation is crucial for regional ecological development. An integrated industry-energy-technology optimization model for green development of energy-intensive IP was developed, which incorporated multi-objective optimization, conservation supply curve and industrial symbiosis coupling models. The energy saving, carbon and air pollutant emission reduction potentials, material saving benefits and economic costs were quantified combining scenario analysis to explore the green development optimal pathway of the IP. A case study of IP-A demonstrated that the optimized scenarios significantly outperform the baseline scenario in energy saving and emission reduction (ESER). The integrated scenario is the most effective in reducing emissions, and the carbon peak target can be achieved by 2030. Compared to the baseline scenario, the carbon emission reduction of integrated scenario is 15.5 Mt (65 % reduction rate) in 2035, and the SO2, NOx, and PM10 emission reduction rates range from 68 % to 74 %. Additionally, potential waste symbiosis activities in IP-A can generated significant material savings of 16787.6 kt in 2035. The results also indicated that high initial investment costs restrict the widespread promotion of structural adjustment measures that possess substantial ESER potential. Overall, waste heat recovery and energy efficiency technology promotion are effective mitigation paths in the short term. Industrial structure optimization and clean energy substitution are main driving factors for ESER in the long term.