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Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050; A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models

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Listed:
  • Mikropoulos, Efstratios
  • Roelfsema, Mark
  • Chen, Hsing-Hsuan
  • Staffell, Iain
  • Oreggioni, Gabriel
  • Hdidouan, Dan
  • Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck
  • Chang, Miguel Antonio
  • Fragkos, Panagiotis
  • Giannousakis, Anastasis
  • Chatterjee, Souran
  • Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana
  • Pfenninger, Stefan
  • Pickering, Bryn
  • Victoria, Marta
  • Brown, Tom
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikropoulos, Efstratios & Roelfsema, Mark & Chen, Hsing-Hsuan & Staffell, Iain & Oreggioni, Gabriel & Hdidouan, Dan & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Chang, Miguel Antonio & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Giannousak, 2025. "Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050; A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:319:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225004517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134809
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