IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v190y2020ics0360544219319681.html

Using atmospheric inputs for Artificial Neural Networks to improve wind turbine power prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Nielson, Jordan
  • Bhaganagar, Kiran
  • Meka, Rajitha
  • Alaeddini, Adel

Abstract

A robust machine learning methodology is used to generate a site-specific power-curve of a full-scale isolated wind turbine operating in an atmospheric boundary layer to drastically improve the power predictions, and, thus, the forecasting of the monthly energy production estimates. The study has important implication in measuring the financial feasibility of wind farms by improving the accuracy of monthly energy estimates. The significance of the study is that atmospheric stability and air-density are accounted in the power predictions of the wind turbine. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) machine learning approach is used to generate multi-parameter input models to estimate the power produced by the wind turbine. The ANN model in this study uses Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) algorithm. The power- and wind-data is obtained from a 2.5 MW wind turbine that has a Meteorological tower located 900 m Southwest of the wind turbine in Kirkwood, Iowa, USA. The study investigates the role of atmospheric boundary-layer metrics – Wind Speed, Density (a measure of stratification), Richardson Number, turbulence intensity, and wind shear as input parameters into the ANN model. The study investigates the influence of FFBP ANN hyper-parameters on the power prediction accuracy. Comparison of the FFBP ANN model to other power curve correction techniques demonstrated an improvement in the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 40% when compared to the density correction (the next closest). The five-parameter 4-layer FFBP ANN has an average energy production error of 0.4% for the nine months while the IEC this error is −3.7% and for the air density correction the error is −1.9%, respectively. Finally, the study determines the performance of the FFBP ANN model for different atmospheric stability regimes (Unstable, Stable, Strongly Stable, Strongly Unstable and Neutral) classified using two criterions - Richardson number and Turbulence intensity. The largest MAE occurs during the strongly stable regime of the atmospheric boundary layer for both criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Nielson, Jordan & Bhaganagar, Kiran & Meka, Rajitha & Alaeddini, Adel, 2020. "Using atmospheric inputs for Artificial Neural Networks to improve wind turbine power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:190:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219319681
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116273
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219319681
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116273?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    2. Oh, Hyunseok & Kim, Bumsuk, 2015. "Comparison and verification of the deviation between guaranteed and measured wind turbine power performance in complex terrain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 23-29.
    3. Manobel, Bartolomé & Sehnke, Frank & Lazzús, Juan A. & Salfate, Ignacio & Felder, Martin & Montecinos, Sonia, 2018. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on Gaussian Processes and Artificial Neural Networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1015-1020.
    4. Mercadier, Mathieu & Lardy, Jean-Pierre, 2019. "Credit spread approximation and improvement using random forest regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 351-365.
    5. Ekonomou, L., 2010. "Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 512-517.
    6. Liu, Jinqiang & Wang, Xiaoru & Lu, Yun, 2017. "A novel hybrid methodology for short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 620-629.
    7. Pelletier, Francis & Masson, Christian & Tahan, Antoine, 2016. "Wind turbine power curve modelling using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 207-214.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahram Hanifi & Xiaolei Liu & Zi Lin & Saeid Lotfian, 2020. "A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods—Past, Present and Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Miguel Á. Rodríguez-López & Emilio Cerdá & Pablo del Rio, 2020. "Modeling Wind-Turbine Power Curves: Effects of Environmental Temperature on Wind Energy Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Qiao, Yanhui & Han, Shuang & Zhang, Yajie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie, 2024. "A multivariable wind turbine power curve modeling method considering segment control differences and short-time self-dependence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Lin, Zi & Liu, Xiaolei, 2020. "Wind power forecasting of an offshore wind turbine based on high-frequency SCADA data and deep learning neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    5. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    6. Li, Tenghui & Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Morrison, Rory, 2022. "Ensemble offshore Wind Turbine Power Curve modelling – An integration of Isolation Forest, fast Radial Basis Function Neural Network, and metaheuristic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    7. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Angelou, Nikolas & Peña, Alfredo, 2024. "Wind turbine power curve modelling under wake conditions using measurements from a spinner-mounted lidar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    8. Marugán, Alberto Pliego & Márquez, Fausto Pedro García & Perez, Jesus María Pinar & Ruiz-Hernández, Diego, 2018. "A survey of artificial neural network in wind energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1822-1836.
    9. Khurram Mushtaq & Runmin Zou & Asim Waris & Kaifeng Yang & Ji Wang & Javaid Iqbal & Mohammed Jameel, 2023. "Multivariate wind power curve modeling using multivariate adaptive regression splines and regression trees," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(8), pages 1-25, August.
    10. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    11. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    12. Muhammad Shahzad Nazir & Fahad Alturise & Sami Alshmrany & Hafiz. M. J Nazir & Muhammad Bilal & Ahmad N. Abdalla & P. Sanjeevikumar & Ziad M. Ali, 2020. "Wind Generation Forecasting Methods and Proliferation of Artificial Neural Network: A Review of Five Years Research Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-27, May.
    13. Wang, Yibo & Shao, Xinyao & Liu, Chuang & Cai, Guowei & Kou, Lei & Wu, Zhiqiang, 2019. "Analysis of wind farm output characteristics based on descriptive statistical analysis and envelope domain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 580-591.
    14. Davide Astolfi & Francesco Castellani & Andrea Lombardi & Ludovico Terzi, 2021. "Multivariate SCADA Data Analysis Methods for Real-World Wind Turbine Power Curve Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    16. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Castañeda, Alberto, 2020. "Influence of the variation of meteorological and operational parameters on estimation of the power output of a wind farm with active power control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 812-826.
    17. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Peña, Alfredo & Troldborg, Niels, 2023. "Numerical evaluation of multivariate power curves for wind turbines in wakes using nacelle lidars," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 419-431.
    18. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    19. Ciulla, G. & D’Amico, A. & Di Dio, V. & Lo Brano, V., 2019. "Modelling and analysis of real-world wind turbine power curves: Assessing deviations from nominal curve by neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 477-492.
    20. Helbing, Georg & Ritter, Matthias, 2018. "Deep Learning for fault detection in wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 189-198.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:190:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219319681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.