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The importance of iteration and deployment in technology development: A study of the impact on wave and tidal stream energy research, development and innovation

Listed author(s):
  • MacGillivray, Andrew
  • Jeffrey, Henry
  • Wallace, Robin
Registered author(s):

    The technological trajectory is the pathway through which an innovative technology develops as it matures. In this paper we model the technological trajectory for a number of energy technologies by analysing technological change (characterised by unit-level capacity up-scaling) and diffusion (characterised by growth in cumulative deployed capacity) using sigmoidal 5 Parameter Logistic (5PL) functions, observed and reported as a function of unit deployment.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515301300
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 87 (2015)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 542-552

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:87:y:2015:i:c:p:542-552
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.002
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Allan, Grant & Gilmartin, Michelle & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2011. "Levelised costs of Wave and Tidal energy in the UK: Cost competitiveness and the importance of "banded" Renewables Obligation Certificates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 23-39, January.
    2. MacGillivray, Andrew & Jeffrey, Henry & Winskel, Mark & Bryden, Ian, 2014. "Innovation and cost reduction for marine renewable energy: A learning investment sensitivity analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 108-124.
    3. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
    4. Winskel, Mark & Markusson, Nils & Jeffrey, Henry & Candelise, Chiara & Dutton, Geoff & Howarth, Paul & Jablonski, Sophie & Kalyvas, Christos & Ward, David, 2014. "Learning pathways for energy supply technologies: Bridging between innovation studies and learning rates," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 96-114.
    5. Jacobsson, Staffan & Lauber, Volkmar, 2006. "The politics and policy of energy system transformation--explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 256-276, February.
    6. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    7. Wilson, Charlie, 2012. "Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 81-94.
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