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Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources


  • Komiyama, Ryoichi
  • Fujii, Yasumasa


This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

Suggested Citation

  • Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2015. "Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 169-184.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 501-522.
    2. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2017. "Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 594-611.
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2117-:d:153640 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:519-530 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Reprint of Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1529-1550.
    6. repec:eee:energy:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:811-821 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:renene:v:127:y:2018:i:c:p:514-523 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:energy:v:165:y:2018:i:pb:p:1200-1219 is not listed on IDEAS


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