IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v83y2015icp169-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources

Author

Listed:
  • Komiyama, Ryoichi
  • Fujii, Yasumasa

Abstract

This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

Suggested Citation

  • Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2015. "Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 169-184.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001470
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hadjipaschalis, Ioannis & Poullikkas, Andreas & Efthimiou, Venizelos, 2009. "Overview of current and future energy storage technologies for electric power applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1513-1522, August.
    2. Kiviluoma, Juha & Meibom, Peter, 2010. "Influence of wind power, plug-in electric vehicles, and heat storages on power system investments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1244-1255.
    3. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2014. "Assessment of massive integration of photovoltaic system considering rechargeable battery in Japan with high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 73-89.
    4. Deane, J.P. & Drayton, G. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2014. "The impact of sub-hourly modelling in power systems with significant levels of renewable generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 152-158.
    5. Keane, A. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Denny, E. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2925-2934, May.
    6. Hart, Elaine K. & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2011. "A Monte Carlo approach to generator portfolio planning and carbon emissions assessments of systems with large penetrations of variable renewables," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2278-2286.
    7. Yasumasa Fujii & Kenji Yamaji, 1998. "Assessment of technological options in the global energy system for limiting the atmospheric CO 2 concentration," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 1(2), pages 113-139, December.
    8. Schaber, Katrin & Steinke, Florian & Hamacher, Thomas, 2012. "Transmission grid extensions for the integration of variable renewable energies in Europe: Who benefits where?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 123-135.
    9. Lund, Henrik, 2005. "Large-scale integration of wind power into different energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 2402-2412.
    10. Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. S. Blankenburg, 2014. "Introduction," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(6), pages 1295-1305.
    12. Denholm, Paul & Hand, Maureen, 2011. "Grid flexibility and storage required to achieve very high penetration of variable renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1817-1830, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 501-522.
    2. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2017. "Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 594-611.
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2117-:d:153640 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:519-530 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Krakowski, Vincent & Assoumou, Edi & Mazauric, Vincent & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Reprint of Feasible path toward 40–100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1529-1550.
    6. repec:eee:energy:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:811-821 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:renene:v:127:y:2018:i:c:p:514-523 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:energy:v:165:y:2018:i:pb:p:1200-1219 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.