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Extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand: Tail-quantile estimation

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  • Sigauke, Caston
  • Verster, Andréhette
  • Chikobvu, Delson

Abstract

A Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to model extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand. The model is fitted to years 2000–2011 recorded data for South Africa to make a comparative analysis with the Generalized Pareto-type (GP-type) distribution. Peak electricity demand is influenced by the tails of probability distributions as well as by means or averages. At times there is a need to depart from the average thinking and exploit information provided by the extremes (tails). Empirical results show that both the GP-type and the GPD are a good fit to the data. One of the main advantages of the GP-type is the estimation of only one parameter. Modelling of extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand helps in quantifying the amount of electricity which can be shifted from the grid to off peak periods. One of the policy implications derived from this study is the need for day-time use of electricity billing system similar to the one used in the cellular telephone/and fixed line-billing technology. This will result in the shifting of electricity demand on the grid to off peak time slots as users try to avoid high peak hour charges.

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  • Sigauke, Caston & Verster, Andréhette & Chikobvu, Delson, 2013. "Extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand: Tail-quantile estimation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:53:y:2013:i:c:p:90-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Maswanganyi & Caston Sigauke & Edmore Ranganai, 2021. "Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Katleho Makatjane, 2022. "Forecasting Uncertainty Intervals for Return Period of Extreme Daily Electricity Consumption," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 217-225, July.
    4. Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce, 2017. "Modelling non-stationary time series using a peaks over threshold distribution with time varying covariates and threshold: An application to peak electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 152-166.
    5. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Nijhuis, M. & Gibescu, M. & Cobben, J.F.G., 2017. "Analysis of reflectivity & predictability of electricity network tariff structures for household consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 631-641.
    7. Stephen Chan & Saralees Nadarajah, 2015. "Extreme value analysis of electricity demand in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1246-1251, October.

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