Reassessing the "energy ladder": Household energy use in Maun, Botswana

In the context of Sub-Saharan Africa's rapid urbanization, improved insight into urban energy use is increasingly important. Based on the predictions of "energy transition" theory, a regional shift from biomass to "modern" fuels has long been expected to occur in tandem with urban growth. However, trends observed in the region's towns and cities have often not followed such patterns and fuelwood continues to be important in most areas. This paper examines the practical relevance of transition theory using a recent case study, conducted by the authors in Maun, Botswana, and results previously reported in the literature. It finds that, despite the long-term link between socio-economic development and increased modern fuel consumption at the national scale, the notion of "transition" does not accurately reflect ongoing energy-use patterns at lower levels of aggregation. This is chiefly because its model of household fuel switching largely dismisses the importance of active (and strategic) decision making by urban consumers and their responsiveness to structural factors such as relative fuel prices. As the Botswana case illustrates, this weakness can significantly distort expectations and policies around urban fuelwood use.