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Russian oil exports under international sanctions

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  • Babina, Tania
  • Hilgenstock, Benjamin
  • Itskhoki, Oleg
  • Mironov, Maxim
  • Ribakova, Elina
  • Shapoval, Nataliia

Abstract

Based on Russian customs data, we develop a novel transaction-level data set for Russian oil and product export prices, volumes, and revenues, disaggregated by ports and trading partners. The data set shed light on the evolution of Russian oil trade between the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the first months of the EU embargo and G7 price cap imposed in late 2022 on Russian oil and refined product exports. Russian crude oil and oil product exports, in value terms, fell by $15.6 billion in 2023Q1 vs. 2022Q4, accounting for 40 % of the total decline in Russian exports. We estimate contributions of 6.1 billion from smaller volumes, $4.2 billion from lower global prices, and $5.2 billion from larger price discounts. At the same time, 2023Q1 budget revenues from hydrocarbons fell 47 % below the previous quarter. Price discounts on Russian crude oil exports widened considerably in segments of the market where demand conditions changed due to the exit of European buyers. There is evidence of systematic violations of the price cap that underscore the need for more rigorous sanctions enforcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Babina, Tania & Hilgenstock, Benjamin & Itskhoki, Oleg & Mironov, Maxim & Ribakova, Elina & Shapoval, Nataliia, 2026. "Russian oil exports under international sanctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325008369
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnson, Simon & Rachel, Lukasz & Wolfram, Catherine, 2023. "Design and implementation of the price cap on Russian oil exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1244-1252.
    2. Simon Johnson & Lukasz Rachel & Catherine Wolfram, 2023. "A Theory of Price Caps on Non-Renewable Resources," NBER Working Papers 31347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    4. Diego S. Cardoso & Stephen W. Salant & Julien Daubanes & Julien Xavier Daubanes, 2025. "The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet," CESifo Working Paper Series 11618, CESifo.
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    1. Tadashi ITO & Kiyoyasu TANAKA, 2026. "Oil Laundering: How did Russian oil circumvent the European Union’s embargo?," Discussion papers 26024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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