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Technology lock-in or innovation breakthrough: Global energy mix transformation driven by technological innovation

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  • Zhao, Shikuan
  • Hunjra, Ahmed Imran
  • Battisti, Enrico
  • Zhu, Zhimeng

Abstract

Technological innovation (TI) plays a critical role in transforming traditional economic models marked by high energy consumption, emissions, and inefficiency, thereby advancing the global “dual carbon” goals. This paper investigates how TI influences energy mix transformation (EMT), using dynamic panel data from 61 countries over the period 2000–2022 and applying a multidimensional fixed-effects model. The results show that TI significantly promotes EMT, and the results are supported by various robustness and heterogeneity tests. Moreover, the technology promotion effect is more pronounced in countries with higher inflation, lower unemployment, higher economic freedom, greater trade openness, higher urbanization, and higher income levels. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital & intelligent development, technology diffusion & globalization, and consumer behavior and awareness are key transmission channels. These findings provide valuable global insights into how TI can drive the shift toward a low-carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Shikuan & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Battisti, Enrico & Zhu, Zhimeng, 2025. "Technology lock-in or innovation breakthrough: Global energy mix transformation driven by technological innovation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325006449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108817
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    1. Wang, Guoyu & Zhou, Jinsheng, 2025. "Are natural resource endowments good or bad for carbon lock-in?——a perspective based on industrial resource dependence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    2. Zhao, Shikuan & Boubaker, Sabri & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Yang, Ping, 2025. "Impact of energy restructuring on green technology innovation in the context of climate policy uncertainty," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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