Firm diversification and equilibrium risk pooling: The Korean financial crisis as a natural experiment
We use the Korean Financial Crisis as a natural laboratory for examining interactions among firm diversification, equilibrium capital structure and tail probability events. When the crisis hit in 1997, several major firms, including a large number of highly leveraged conglomerates (Chaebols), experienced bankruptcies. We show how diversified Chaebols obtain higher equilibrium leverage than non-Chaebols (a "cosigner effect"). In the event of a low probability macro-economic shock, the model predicts a systematic change in relative bankruptcy risks of Chaebol firms. To examine this implication, we introduce an empirical methodology that decomposes equilibrium debt into demand, supply and Chaebol-specific factors, for use in a bankruptcy prediction model. We find that the primary cause of Chaebol firm bankruptcies was not idiosyncratic leverage, but leverage systematically related to greater equilibrium access to debt during normal times.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lewellen, Wilbur G, 1971. "A Pure Financial Rationale for the Conglomerate Merger," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 521-37, May.
- Baek, Jae-Seung & Kang, Jun-Koo & Suh Park, Kyung, 2004. "Corporate governance and firm value: evidence from the Korean financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 265-313, February.
- Belén Villalonga, 2004. "Diversification Discount or Premium? New Evidence from the Business Information Tracking Series," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 479-506, 04.
- George Allayannis & Gregory W. Brown & Leora F. Klapper, 2003. "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2710, December.
- Kim, E Han & McConnell, John J, 1977. "Corporate Mergers and the Co-insurance of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 349-65, May.
- Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
- Jeremy C. Stein, 2001.
"Agency, Information and Corporate Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
8342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chevalier Judith, 2004. "What Do We Know About Cross-subsidization? Evidence from Merging Firms," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, April.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
- Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995.
" What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-60, December.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1994. "What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 4875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Larry H.P. Lang & Rene M. Stulz, 1993.
"Tobin's Q, Corporate Diversification and Firm Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
4376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lang, Larry H P & Stulz, Rene M, 1994. "Tobin's q, Corporate Diversification, and Firm Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1248-80, December.
- Valentin Dimitrov & Sheri Tice, 2006. "Corporate Diversification and Credit Constraints: Real Effects across the Business Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1465-1498.
- Jeong-Pyo Choi & Thomas Cowing, 2002. "Diversification, Concentration and Economic Performance: Korean Business Groups," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 271-282, November.
- Hayne E. Leland, 2007. "Financial Synergies and the Optimal Scope of the Firm: Implications for Mergers, Spinoffs, and Structured Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 765-807, 04.
- José Manuel Campa & Simi Kedia, 1999.
"Explaining the Diversification Discount,"
99-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-29, May.
- Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferris, Stephen P. & Kim, Kenneth A. & Kitsabunnarat, Pattanaporn, 2003. "The costs (and benefits?) of diversified business groups: The case of Korean chaebols," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 251-273, February.
- Toni M. Whited, 2001. "Is It Inefficient Investment that Causes the Diversification Discount?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1667-1691, October.
- Sattar A. Mansi & David M. Reeb, 2002. "Corporate Diversification: What Gets Discounted?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2167-2183, October.
- Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
- Berger, Philip G. & Ofek, Eli, 1995. "Diversification's effect on firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 39-65, January.
- Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-75, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:1:p:1-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.