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Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective

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  • Jiang, Feiyu
  • Zhao, Zifeng
  • Shao, Xiaofeng

Abstract

In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via change-points and further enjoys great interpretability due to its semiparametric nature. On the methodological front, we advance the nascent self-normalization (SN) technique (Shao, 2010) to testing and estimation of a single change-point in the linear trend of a nonstationary time series. We further combine the SN-based change-point test with the NOT algorithm (Baranowski et al., 2019) to achieve multiple change-point estimation. Using the proposed method, we analyze the trajectory of the cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths for 30 major countries and discover interesting patterns with potentially relevant implications for effectiveness of the pandemic responses by different countries. Furthermore, based on the change-point detection algorithm and a flexible extrapolation function, we design a simple two-stage forecasting scheme for COVID-19 and demonstrate its promising performance in predicting cumulative deaths in the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Feiyu & Zhao, Zifeng & Shao, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:232:y:2023:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.039
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    1. Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "Testing for changes in linear models using weighted residuals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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