Analysis of treatment response data from eligibility designs
In this paper, we develop and compare two alternative approaches for calculating the effect of the actual intake when treatments are randomized, but compliance with the assignment in the treatment arm is less than perfect for reasons that are correlated with the outcome. The approaches are based on different identification assumptions about these unobserved confounders. In the first approach, which stems from [Sommer, A., Zeger, S., 1991. On estimating efficacy in clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 10, 45-52], the unobserved confounders are modeled by a discrete indicator variable that represents subject-type, defined in terms of the potential intake in the face of each possible assignment. In the second approach, confounding is modeled without reference to subject-type in the spirit of the Roy model. Because the two models are non-nested, and model comparison and assessment of the approaches in a real data setting is one of our central goals, we formulate the discussion from a Bayesian perspective, comparing the two models in terms of marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors, and in terms of inferences about the treatment effects. The latter we calculate from a predictive perspective in a way that is different from that in the literature, where typically only a point summary of that effect is calculated. Our real data analysis focuses on the JOBS II eligibility trial that was implemented to test the effectiveness of a job search seminar in decreasing the negative mental health effects commonly associated with job loss. We provide a comparative analysis of the data from the two approaches with prior distributions that are both reasonable in the context of the data and comparable across the model specifications. We show that the approaches can lead to different evaluations of the treatment.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deb, Partha & Munkin, Murat K. & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2006. "Private Insurance, Selection, and Health Care Use: A Bayesian Analysis of a Roy-Type Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 403-415, October.
- Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-59, May.
- Yau L.H.Y. & Little R.J., 2001. "Inference for the Complier-Average Causal Effect From Longitudinal Data Subject to Noncompliance and Missing Data, With Application to a Job Training Assessment for the Unemployed," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1232-1244, December.
- Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-49, September.
- Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
- Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994.
"Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Hamilton, Barton H., 2000. "Bayesian analysis of cross-section and clustered data treatment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 25-50, July.
- James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005.
"Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, 05.
- James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 11259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 2007. "Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 401-412, October.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Hamilton, Barton H., 2002. "Semiparametric Bayes analysis of longitudinal data treatment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 67-89, September.
- James Heckman & Justin L. Tobias & Edward Vytlacil, 2001.
"Four Parameters of Interest in the Evaluation of Social Programs,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 210-223, October.
- Heckman, J J & Tobias, Justin & Vytlacil, Ed, 2001. "Four Parameters of Interest in the Evaluation of Social Programs," Staff General Research Papers 12022, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Jacobi, Liana, 2007. "Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 781-801, October.
- Frangakis, Constantine E. & Brookmeyer, Ronald S. & Varadhan, Ravi & Safaeian, Mahboobeh & Vlahov, David & Strathdee, Steffanie A., 2004. "Methodology for Evaluating a Partially Controlled Longitudinal Treatment Using Principal Stratification, With Application to a Needle Exchange Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 239-249, January.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:144:y:2008:i:2:p:465-478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.