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Dynamic forecasting of agricultural water footprint based on Markov Chain-a case study of the Heihe River Basin

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  • Feng, Le
  • Chen, Bin
  • Hayat, Tasawar
  • Alsaedi, Ahmed
  • Ahmad, Bashir

Abstract

Water footprint forecasting is essential to measuring the embodied water resource consumption and achieving the sustainable water governance. Agricultural sector is conventionally a water intensive sector and accounts for large amount of water consumption in the river basins. In this paper, a system dynamics model is combined with Markov Chain, considering economic development, agriculture water consumption, population and agricultural ecosystem, to forecast the total agricultural water footprint (AWF) as well as its pressure on the freshwater ecosystem. Wheat, coin, potato, alfalfa, vegetables and flax are chosen as representative crops for AWF accounting in the integrated model. A case study of the Heihe River Basin in China during 2010–2030 shows that, the AWFs are 9.67×108m3, 1.02×109m3, 1.05×109m3 and 9.27×108m3 under Baseline Scenario, Moderate Risk Scenario, High Risk Scenario and Sustainable Scenario, respectively. It is concluded that the improvement on agricultural water efficiency may decrease the AWF, which can be achieved by agricultural water conservation, irrigation canal construction, maintenance funding and investments, agricultural planting adjustment, and virtual water strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Le & Chen, Bin & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2017. "Dynamic forecasting of agricultural water footprint based on Markov Chain-a case study of the Heihe River Basin," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 150-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:353:y:2017:i:c:p:150-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Shulin & Su, Xiaoling & Singh, Vijay P & Ayantobo, Olusola Olaitan & Xie, Juan, 2018. "Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis of changes in agricultural water use: a case study of the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 422-430.
    2. Zhai, Yijie & Bai, Yueyang & Wu, Zhen & Hong, Jinglan & Shen, Xiaoxu & Xie, Fei & Li, Xiangzhi, 2022. "Grain self-sufficiency versus environmental stress: An integration of system dynamics and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Sun, Yuanyuan & Mao, Xianqiang & Liu, Gengyuan & Yin, Xinan & Zhao, Yanwei, 2020. "Modelling the effects of energy taxes on ecological footprint transfers in China's foreign trade," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).

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