IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v246y2025ics0165176524005627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political risk dynamics, leaders’ capability, and economic performance: New evidence of national executives

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Xiangyu

Abstract

In this paper, I provide the first cross-country empirical analysis to establish three stylized facts on how term limits and political risk shape the relationship between leader capability and economic outcomes, using a novel data set of national leaders’ personal and tenure characteristics and countries’ institutional features: (1) In democracies with (exogenous) term limits, the positive association between leaders’ performance and their capability is significantly less pronounced in their last term, when they do not have face further political risks; (2) In democracies with term limits, the positive association between leaders’ performance and their capability is decreasing over time on average in their entire tenure, but exhibits a jump in the term right before the last term; and (3) The above patterns are more salient in presidential democracies with binding term limits than parliamentary democracies while non-existent in non-democracies where leaders are not appointed via elections. These facts are consistent with a theory of political risk and electoral dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Xiangyu, 2025. "Political risk dynamics, leaders’ capability, and economic performance: New evidence of national executives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:246:y:2025:i:c:s0165176524005627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524005627
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alain de Janvry & Frederico Finan & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2012. "Local Electoral Incentives and Decentralized Program Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 672-685, August.
    2. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2011. "Do Democracies Select More Educated Leaders?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 552-566, August.
    3. Torsten Persson, 2004. "Presidential Address: Consequences of Constitutions," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 139-161, 04/05.
    4. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 301-314, October.
    5. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    6. Gregory A. Huber & Sanford C. Gordon, 2004. "Accountability and Coercion: Is Justice Blind when It Runs for Office?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 247-263, April.
    7. Timothy Besley & Jose G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal‐Querol, 2011. "Do Educated Leaders Matter?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 205-205, August.
    8. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Insper Working Papers wpe_117, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    9. Claire S.H. Lim & James M. Snyder Jr., 2021. "What Shapes the Quality and Behavior of Government Officials? Institutional Variation in Selection and Retention Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 87-109, August.
    10. Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai & Naercio Aquino Menezes Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Business and Economics Working Papers 051, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    11. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
    12. Shi, Xiangyu, 2024. "Does national leaders’ work experience matter for economic growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Carlos Berdejó & Noam Yuchtman, 2013. "Crime, Punishment, and Politics: An Analysis of Political Cycles in Criminal Sentencing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 741-756, July.
    14. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Constitutional Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 25-45, March.
    15. Berry, William D. & Berkman, Michael B. & Schneiderman, Stuart, 2000. "Legislative Professionalism and Incumbent Reelection: The Development of Institutional Boundaries," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 859-874, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2020. "Who seeks reelection: local fiscal restraints and political selection," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 105-134, July.
    2. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Pérez, Jessica Helen, 2013. "Do more educated leaders raise citizens’ education?," Working Papers 2072/220219, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2016. "Resilient Leaders and Institutional Reform: Theory and Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 584-623, October.
    4. Gutmann, Jerg & Metelska-Szaniawska, Katarzyna & Voigt, Stefan, 2024. "Leader characteristics and constitutional compliance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Kahsay, Goytom Abraha & Medhin, Haileselassie, 2020. "Leader turnover and forest management outcomes: Micro-level evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Paul Pelzl & Steven Poelhekke, 2023. "Democratization, leader education and growth: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 571-600, December.
    7. Mercier, Marion, 2016. "The return of the prodigy son: Do return migrants make better leaders?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 76-91.
    8. Ferraresi, Massimiliano & Rizzo, Leonzio & Secomandi, Riccardo, 2024. "Electoral incentives to target investment in roads: Evidence from Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Tricaud, Clemence, 2022. "Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12411, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Amarasinghe, Ashani, 2023. "Public sentiment in times of terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2020. "Are educated leaders good for education? Evidence from India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 42-62.
    12. Florian Neumeier, 2018. "Do Businessmen Make Good Governors?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2116-2136, October.
    13. Thomas Edward Flores & Gabriella Lloyd & Irfan Nooruddin, 2023. "When TED talks, does anyone listen? A new dataset on political leadership," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 169-199, January.
    14. Woon, Jonathan & Kanthak, Kristin, 2019. "Elections, ability, and candidate honesty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 735-753.
    15. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan & Olle Folke & Torsten Persson & Johanna Rickne, 2017. "Who Becomes A Politician?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1877-1914.
    16. Sørensen, Rune J., 2023. "Educated politicians and government efficiency: Evidence from Norwegian local government," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 163-179.
    17. Li, Jingheng & Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang, 2020. "Empowering knowledge: Political leaders, education, and economic liberalization," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Yu, Shu & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2020. "Rich or alive? Political (in)stability, political leader selection and economic growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 561-577.
    19. Oluwole Owoye & Olugbenga A. Onafowora, 2018. "The Role Of Educated Leaders In Economic Growth And Development: Evidence From Central African Republic And Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 81-102, November.
    20. Oscar Calvo-Gonz'alez & Axel Eizmendi & Germ'an Reyes, 2022. "The Shifting Attention of Political Leaders: Evidence from Two Centuries of Presidential Speeches," Papers 2209.00540, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leader; Institution; Economic performance; Political risks; Electoral dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:246:y:2025:i:c:s0165176524005627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.