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How much stock return predictability can we expect from an asset pricing model?

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  • Zhou, Guofu

Abstract

We provide a new upper bound on the R-squared of a predictive regression of stock returns on predictable variables, tightening substantially Ross's (2005) bound. An empirical application illustrates that while Ross's bound is not binding, our bound does.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "How much stock return predictability can we expect from an asset pricing model?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 184-186, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:2:p:184-186
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    8. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Baoqing Gan, 2020. "Does Social Media Sentiment Trump News?," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2020, January-A.
    10. Cunha, Ronan & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns," Textos para discussão 398, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
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    12. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2018. "Maximal predictability under long-term mean reversion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 269-282.
    13. Potì, Valerio, 2018. "A new tight and general bound on return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 140-145.
    14. Hai Lin & Daniel Quill & Henk Berkman, 2016. "Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(3), pages 749-785, September.
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    16. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    17. Allan Timmermann, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 449-479, November.
    18. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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